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Noodles & Company’s Operations Management

Noodles & Company’s Operations Management

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Institution Affiliation

Noodles & Company’s Operations Management

Today, the business environment is constantly changing, with businesses also diverting focus on operations management. Operation management is the administration of resources and processes needed by a firm in the production of products and services (Barnes, 2018, p. 5). In the business world today, corporations are keen on operations management to achieve the highest level of efficiency achievable (Kenton, 2019). An excellent example of a business that relies mostly on operations management is the Noodles & Company. It attributes its success over the years to excellent operations management. The fast-food restaurant focuses on business operations and functions to ensure it achieves quality services and efficient service delivery to customers.

Noodles & Company

Noodle & Company is a fast food restaurant based in America, having its headquarters in Broomfield, Colorado. The firm currently serves 29 states across the US and also has its operations in Europe, Canada, India, Asia, and Africa. Since being founded in 1995, the company has dedicated a vast amount of resources and time to ensure that its operations management ensures that it serves quality fast-foods fast and efficiently (Noodles & Company, 2020). Such actions on focusing on operations management have enabled the business to achieve tremendous success, expanding its operations to new markets over the years. The restaurant’s operations management was developed by focusing on the restaurant’s competitive priorities.

Competitive Priorities

The operations management currently possessed by the restaurant was developed through the use of an operations strategy. The strategy leads to the specification of the needs of the restaurant’s strategy to its operations by focusing on the competitive priorities. According to Jitpaiboon et al. (2016), competitive priorities refer to the crucial dimensions that a firm’s operations ought to possess to satisfy customers. Competitive priorities can, therefore, be regarded as a guidance of the business’ operations, since the various aspects of the operations ought to focus on supporting the competitive priority (Reid & Sanders, 2019, p. 35). At Noodles & Company, there are various competitive priorities that its operations focus on, such as quality, delivery, and customer focus.

Noodles & Company’s Competitive Priorities

Foremost, the restaurant prioritizes on quality of fast foods it serves its customers. Quality is among the restaurant’s competitive priorities, and it gives directions to the restaurant’s operations (Collier & Evans, 2016, p. 54). Through having quality as a competitive priority, the restaurant achieves align its manufacturing and service processes to serve fresh quality hot dishes. The various operations from the counter to the kitchen to the dining area, are all aimed at ensuring the serving of hot quality fresh fast-foods. The restaurant was founded on the principle that the customers should not sacrifice quality when they require speed, leading to the next competitive priority of time.

The second competitive priority that the restaurant’s operations are aligned with is delivery or time. Noodles & Company was founded to deliver fast foods at a fast speed without compromising on the quality of the meals. Such actions demonstrate the employment of lean manufacturing which is aimed at the elimination of waste while adding value to consumers (Davim, 2018, p. 70). The waste resource being eliminated is time resource as meals are prepared fast. The restaurant aligns its operations from the counter to the kitchen and finally to the dining room to be efficient to ensure that customers receive their ordered hot fast-foods at approximately 6 minutes or less, eliminating wastage of time. The restaurant prioritizes the fast delivery of food to a customer since it creates better service delivery and also customer satisfaction. Therefore, through aligning the operations to be focused on fast delivery, the restaurant achieves to ensure customer satisfaction.

Another competitive priority of Noodles & Company is customer focus. The success of the company over the years is because of the operations being aligned with a customer focus. Customer focus is about the fulfilment of a customer’s needs and includes several services such as product support and customer information (Awwad et al., 2010). Noodles & Company have its operations management focused on customer focus. An excellent example of how the restaurant has aligned its operation to customer focus is in the lobby. From the moment a customer enters the restaurant, there are pictures to engage the customer to know their preferred food instead of thinking of the food they want. Such measures ensure the restaurant is focused on customers, which therefore contributes to the operations management effective.

Processes

Moreover, effective operations management is also concerned with effective manufacturing processes. In Noodles & Company, there are various processes adopted to ensure efficient production. The first process in the restaurant is the guest interaction which lasts about 30 seconds. The entrance of the restaurant has a menu that engages the customer to make them aware of the dish they desire. After knowing the dish a customer wants, they will go ahead to place the order. A card is given to customers which they place on their tables, waiting for their dish to be prepared. Once the order is placed, the dish is displayed on a monitor where the employees in the kitchen can then prepare the ordered dish quickly.

The second process is at the silver bowl station, which lasts about 15 to 30 seconds. Under the process, the employees pick the recipes required to prepare the ordered dish. The next processes are through the sauté line and lastly through the garnish station. The entire process is designed to ensure that the dishes are prepared within 5 to 6 minutes, ensuring that the customer is quickly served quality hot dishes. The figure below is a service blueprint of the restaurant’s processes.

3583305425154Preparations

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3931277-68834701901633428300Orderr

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1679944339769-38227063913Customer

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-8506032960948985163500Guest Interaction

Guest Interaction

462494141419731789134145371989130170962Silver Bowl Station

Silver Bowl Station

3435527170608Sauté Line

Sauté Line

4988147172971Garnish Station

Garnish Station

4816017259863Serving

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5560680216195

4065920150200Customer

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Dining

Operations and Processes Design

Firstly, the restaurant has design its operations to be fast through the division of tasks. Right from the lobby to the kitchen, the staffs are divided, having various responsibilities to perform. Some employees are concerned with the ordering process, which is then reflected in the two monitors placed in the kitchen; on the sauté line and the garnish station. In the kitchen, staff are divided into the two stations. Such division of tasks enables the preparation of order dishes within four to five minutes. According to Khanna (2015), time as a competitive priority is concerned with on-time delivery which Noodles & Company is keen on. Therefore, through divisions of tasks, the restaurant enables on-time delivery of the dishes.

The other way through which the restaurant designs its operations and processes to achieve quality meals is on fresh produces. There is a prepped inventory which ensures that the restaurant achieves the use of fresh vegetables and produces. The prepped inventory is updated every mornings and evening, and thus facilitates the use of quality fresh produce that enables the serving of quality dishes. Consequently, the Noodles & Company can achieve its competitive priority of quality and customer focus.

Noodles & Company Fail-safe

Noodles & Company fail-safe its processes by having job aides at every station in the kitchen. Having the job aides at the stations as fail-safe ensures that the employees in the kitchen use the right tools for success. Fail-safes are processes or mechanism instituted in the operations to mitigate the occurrence of disasters (Lee, 2016). The right tools in the restaurant include the measurements of the ingredients, the amount of heat, and the recipes, ensuring the quality of dishes and service. Thus, through having job aides at every station in the kitchen as fail-safes mechanism facilitates the serving of quality dishes to customers, smoothening the entire process of meal preparations.

Customer Satisfaction

On the other hand, the fast-food restaurant achieves customer requirements aligning its operations towards customer satisfaction. Foremost, Noodles & Company can achieve the customer requirements by having all procedures and process aligned to meeting customer requirements. The other way that the restaurant achieves customer requirements and satisfaction is through the use of fresh vegetables and produce. Noodles & Company is focused on serving quality fresh dishes quickly through the use of fresh produce which it stocks in its freezers. The quick serving and preparations of dishes are facilitated by the way the ingredients are lined up in the kitchen and division of tasks, among others. Such actions are aimed at customer satisfaction.

Furthermore, Noodles & Company uses lean operations that facilitate greater customer satisfaction. Lean operations are the use of minimum resources to improve customer satisfaction (Modi, 2017, p. 245). The restaurant ensures that the customers wait only for approximately 6 minutes or less for quality dishes to be prepared and served hot. Such actions save time, therefore, increasing customer satisfaction.

Smooth Flows

Operations management is also concerned with service processes where it is essential to ensure the smooth flow of customers, goods, and information, which is vital to the restaurant’s success. According to Parker (2018), businesses today are developing service processes aimed at improving service delivery, and such service processes are evident in the restaurant’s smooth flow of customers, goods, and information. The restaurant first achieves smooth flow of customers through interactions such as menu which assists them to know what they would like to order. During ordering, a number card is given to them which they would place on the tables for identification. Additionally, after ordering, there are soft drinks displayed which customers can take as they wait to be served. The restaurant also ensures the smooth flow of goods through the first in first out (FIFO) rotation policy.

The other way that the operations support the smooth flow of information is through the use of monitors and card numbers given to customers after ordering. Employing technology in changing services processes is efficient in achieving improvements while supporting customer service. The monitors are placed in the kitchen to display the orders, facilitating a smooth flow of information. Smooth flow of both people, goods, and information are contributing factors to effective operations.

Noodles & Company Layout

The layout of the restaurant is designed to facilitate a smooth and effective flow of operations. The positioning of interactions, including the menu, at the entrances, facilitates the choice of the desired dishes by customers. Instead of guessing which meal to take, the interactions facilitate the choice of the dishes smoothening the operations. Additionally, the positioning of soft drinks at the ready-to-drink cooler enables customers to conveniently choose their desired drink to take as they wait for their dishes to be prepared.

On the other hand, the kitchen’s layout is also designed to support the restaurant’s operations. The lining of vegetables, noodles, and other ingredients facilitate the easier and fast picking of ingredients. The restaurant has a specific line up where the vegetables flow, noodles, and sauté dishes. Such specific positioning of ingredients is vital as it helps the restaurant’s employees to prepare the dishes within the 4 to 5 minutes. The layouts adopted by the restaurant facilitates the services of operations to be smooth and effective. According to Slack (2018), getting the process details correctly is beneficial as it leads to effective operations. Therefore, the layout is a contributing factor that enables the effective operations of the restaurant.

Inventory Management

Noodles & Company manages its inventory through regular prepping. Inventory management is essential as it targets the equilibrium among customer service and investment (Ivanov et al., 2017, p. 347). In the restaurant, prepping is commonly used in the walking cooler where fresh produce and vegetables are kept. The vegetables are regularly prepped to ensure the smooth flow of goods and ensuring the use of fresh produce. Prepping is usually done in the mornings, afternoons, and evenings. Such inventory management is essential as it ensures quality dishes is served to customers, contributing to effective operations management.

Staffing Arrangement

For adequate and fast preparation of dishes, the restaurant employs the use of division of tasks. Back in the kitchen, the employees are divided into various roles with some being in the sauté line and others in the garnish station. The staffing arrangement at the restaurant is based on capacity management, where the restaurant exploits its prospective activities, achieving better results (McVay et al., 2017). Therefore, the productive capacity management of employees through the division of tasks enables the restaurant to achieve higher success.

Conclusion and Recommendation

In Summary, the Noodles & Company achieves its competitive priorities of quality fast-foods timely and ensures customer focus through having its operations being aligned to the priorities. Such measures by the restaurant have seen it grow, reaching new markets while ensuring customer satisfaction. The restaurant’s processes from guest interaction to the garnish station are all designed to ensure fast serving of quality fresh dishes. Noodles & Company’s operations management is, however, effective and requires little or less improvement. The operations of the restaurant can be improved by focusing on the counter by adding more counters to ease the flow of the line when ordering. However, the operations at the restaurant are effective in ensuring fast quality serving of fast-foods.

References

Awwad, A., Al Khattab, A., & Anchor, J. R. (2010). Competitive priorities and competitive advantage in Jordanian manufacturing. Journal of Science and Management 6(1), DOI:10.4236/jssm.2013.61008.

Barnes, D. (2018). Operations management. Macmillan International Higher Education.

Collier, D. A., & Evans, J. R. (2016). OM. Cengage Learning.

Davim, J. P. (Ed.). (2018). Progress in lean manufacturing. Springer.

Ivanov, D., Tsipoulanidis, A., & Schönberger, J. (2017). Global supply chain and operations management. A Decision-Oriented Introduction to the Creation of Value.

Jitpaiboon, T., Gu, Q., & Truong, D. (2016). Evolution of competitive priorities towards performance improvement: a meta-analysis. International Journal of Production Research, 54(24), 7400-7420.

Kenton, W. (2019). Operations management. Retrieved on June 17, 2020, from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/operations-management.asp#:~:text=Operations%20management%20is%20the%20administration,the%20profit%20of%20an%20organization.

Khanna, R. B. (2015). Production and operations management. PHI Learning Pvt. Ltd..Lee, W. D. (2016). Fail-Safe 101: An introduction to failures in leadership and management. Spectrum Group.

McVay, G., Kennedy, F., & Fullerton, R. (2017). Accounting in the lean enterprise: providing simple, practical, and decision-relevant information. CRC Press.

Modi, A. A. (2017). Essentials of operations management. PHI Learning Pvt. Ltd..Noodles & Company. (2020). About Noodles & Company. Retrieved on June 17, 2020, from https://www.noodles.com/about-noodles/

Parker, D. W. (2018). Service operations management, second edition: The total experience. Edward Elgar Publishing.

Reid, R. D., & Sanders, N. R. (2019). Operations management: an integrated approach. John Wiley & Sons.

Slack, N. (2018). Essentials of operations management. Pearson UK.

Non-Verbal Cues in the Culture

Non-Verbal Cues in the Culture

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Abstract

Non-verbal cues are an essential part of language and communication. They play a vital role in conveying messages to different parties. Therefore, understanding the elements of non-verbal cues is critical as it creates clarity, trust, and good rapport. Various non-verbal cues are incorporated in verbal speeches to facilitate communication among people (Xidirova, 2021). These are the body orientations or movements, facial expressions, movements and choice of objects, nuances of the voice, and dress details that intentionally make a statement or communicate a message. Different cultures embrace non-verbal cues to communicate and talk more about their culture. The handshake is a non-verbal cue incorporated by many cultures worldwide to communicate. More often than not, the handshake is used to pass greetings by most cultures and people. However, some cultures are quite different and unique in how they apply the handshake as a non-verbal cue and the message being conveyed. This paper focuses on the Islamic and American cultures, handshake as their non-verbal, how it’s incorporated in their respective cultures, and their meaning.

Introduction

Non-verbal cues are an inevitable part of human life. Individuals encounter non-verbal cues in their day-to-day lives, whether they realize it or not. Through interactions in different environments, people receive or send non-verbal cues to convey their desired messages to other parties. A handshake is a common non-verbal cue embraced by various cultures to facilitate communication and proper understanding. Since cultures have different beliefs and practices, the handshake as a body language has a different meaning and therefore passes different messages altogether (Labuza, 2021). The duration, grip, and handshake expectations also vary in different cultures. A three-second-long rhythmic pattern is the standard duration of a handshake and sometimes a handwave. The aggressiveness of a handshake might convey a powerful and extreme message, whether positive or negative. This paper will discuss the handshake in the Islamic and American culture, its significance, and the message it is meant to convey.

The Islamic culture is a fascinating culture to explore and learn from. Muslims have other intriguing practices and beliefs besides the handshake that gives them a shared understanding and unites them as a community. The controversy and misunderstanding surrounding the handshake among Muslims has spotlighted the non-verbal cue (Eesa, 2019). It is crucial to understand that Muslims use the handshake to show a greeting, an agreement, and farewell, just like in other cultures. Handshake is known as ‘salaam’ in the Islamic culture. Most Muslims, if not all, do not engage in a handshake between their opposite genders (Рожкова, 2019). People of the same gender are comfortable and allowed to shake hands to pass a message. Muslims prohibit physical contact between people of the opposite gender because they believe it is unnecessary and a violation of what they stand for in terms of a woman’s purity. They attach a deeper meaning to physical social contact and should not be indulged with everyone.

According to the Muslim culture, men and women who are not intimately related are prohibited from any form of physical contact.For greetings, agreements, and farewell, they substitute with other verbal and non-verbal cues to communicate correctly and still maintain their culture and principles (Eesa, 2019). Religious demands principles demand that society be inclusive and considerate by allowing space for difference. However, emerging trends beyond the handshake like kisses and hugs as greetings have made it challenging for Muslims to practice this aspect of their culture (Рожкова, 2019). It would be difficult and unfair to ask or force Muslims to change their norms and conform to a handshake between people of opposite genders. For this reason, it is advised that when one meets a Muslim friend of the opposite gender, they should always take their time, watch their movements and let the Muslim friend take the lead on the form of greeting they lean towards.

Unlike the Muslim culture, the American culture embraces and uses the handshake regardless of the gender in play. The Americans have embraced the handshake as part of their culture. They are used in the initial stages and introductions of interactions. It is the most common form of greeting in America when individuals meet for the first time or in a professional setting. They shake hands in different environments to signify acceptance or express their friendliness to other people in the same setup (Labuza, 2021). A standard handshake in America should be firm while the players maintain direct eye contact throughout the greeting. This type of handshake is mainly used in business contexts to express formality. However, a formal handshake may seem awkward or over-formal in casual settings. In the event that the players in a handshake are friends, family, or are in an informal setup, then the handshake standards may change. What matters is the relationship, comfortability, and the environmental setting of the parties in play during a handshake.

Americans also use the handshake between the same or different genders to symbolize an agreement. During formal setups, especially in business, individuals shake hands to show agreements or an affirmation of honorable and valid deals. Employees and management shake hands upon an agreement as a symbol of unity. They are used to show successful negotiations and a sealed deal among parties or individuals in play (Lindhardt, 2021). Handshakes are also used in America to bid farewell. Individuals shake hands to say goodbye when they are parting ways. In this case, the attached meaning of a handshake can be used in formal and informal settings. It means that Americans shake hands while bidding goodbye in the office, family gathering, and even between friends. It shows that the respective parties in the handshake parted ways in good faith or maintained a neutral relationship.

Conclusions

It is undeniable that non-verbal cues are crucial for any form of communication. The handshake is one of the non-verbal cues that has facilitated communication among so many people of different cultures worldwide. Many cultures new to handshaking find it interesting and incorporate it mainly as a greeting. It has become the statement of intent among many people and should be incorporated into different cultures. However, it is essential to acknowledge and appreciate other non-verbal cues besides the American and Islamic cultures. People put a different meaning to different non-verbal cues depending on their culture and upbringing. It is essential to respect that and not force them to conform to other practices considered universally acceptable.

References

Eesa, A. P. (2019). Islamic Greeting (of Salaam): A Religious, Historical, and Sociolinguistic Perspective. Journal of Al-Qadisiya University Vol, 22(2), 37.

Labuza, P. (2021). When A Handshake Meant Something: Lawyers, Deal Making, and the Emergence of New Hollywood. Enterprise & Society, 22(4), 950-961.

Lindhardt, M. (2021). In Denmark, we eat pork and shake hands! Islam and the anti-Islamic emblems of cultural difference in Danish neo-nationalism. European Journal of Cultural Studies, 13675494211035389.

Xidirova, M. (2021). NON-VERBAL EXPRESSION OF RESPECT IN ENGLISH AND UZBEK. Мировая наука, (1), 30-33.

Рожкова, Е. Ю. (2019). Non-verbal communication in different cultures.

Nonverbal Behaviours Used in Criminal Investigation

Nonverbal Behaviours Used in Criminal Investigation

In a communication, various techniques of conveying messages are used by different individuals. The non-verbal communication is used variedly to convey feelings and emotions between the parties participating in communication. It involves nonverbal stimuli in a given setting that is brought out by the person speaking and the surrounding and it has very potential information for the listener. It is basically the form of sending and receiving the intended message. In courts, they are taken in close consideration in examining and evaluating subjects and thus, are used by the subjects directly to represent fight or flight survival. Different nonverbal used to convey messages are discussed below.

The posture made individuals communicates various messages either good or bad.it shows one’s level of attention and involvement, status difference and the closeness that the communicator has with the person. When a person sits or stands a way from the communicator and tries not to get closer to each other it signifies negative sentiment during communication since the person is protecting himself/herself from the communicator. The type of clothing the one wears shows the personality, mood, confidence, and the identity. The subjects may wear certain clothing to hide their personality and express the emotions of anger or happiness and certain colours of clothing are worn by the subjects to show the danger and to defend themselves (Inbau, 2014).

Gestures made with different body parts, shows the intention of an individual in a given environment. Gestures are significantly important in different contexts and they can be offensive or defensive mechanism. The facial expression is a practical way of communicating. When one is defending oneself it can be seen on the forehead, the jaw movement, the movements of the eyes and the mouth. When one is not at ease the head stiffens the narrowing of the eyes among others (Becker, & Dutelle, 2013).

Human beings are very noble in reasoning and faculty, the minds are finite and understanding the mind limits helps to boost the reasoning ability of a person. It begins with one’s memory, the ability to store information and also is prone to difficulty in retrieving the information. Despaired and faulty memories lead to false testimony and witnessing of event occurrence. It leads to imprisonment that is not genuine, overlooked judgement and also death. Human minds retrieve information by using nonverbal cues that may be misinterpreted. Human beings are not good in dealing with probability and are reflected in the language that is used where the words reveal the level of probability. The emotional reactions due to fear and current occurrence vary and this reaction shows the possible implication on the healing of the human lives. Weakness is seen when expression of uncertainty is seen (Becker, & Dutelle, 2013).

The nature and nurturing of thinking help in recognizing the existence and the importance of learning the individual instincts that when critically taken into consideration will enable the understanding of the level of deception and honesty by the subjects. Humans are unique and this defines the power of the notions and perception of events. When the notion is acceptable to the individuals it restores their ability to read the level of honesty and deception exposed by an individual. Intelligent life enables the self-awareness and the ability to give information that is acceptable and enables survival in extreme conditions. To dominate the instincts and supress fear, serious training is essential for it helps to improve the social relation with others and the language used during communication. The power of reason is essential in the giving of messages by different persons. Different reasoning and ability to communicate is the healing power that if exhibited by individuals will boost the understanding of the underlying deception or truth (Inbau,2014).

Various signals made by the body parts have different meanings and are very important in relying on information. The investigators can be in a position to take close observations of the signals and acquire information from the subject. The head positioning varies depending on the situations. The positive emotions are exposed by the loose furrow lines on the individual forehead, when one is relaxed and is at ease the head is always tilted sideways, and the neck is openly exposed. When tensed and suspicious, always the head is stiff and the neck is hidden. Facial expressions can convey important information required in an investigation, since it the most practical way of conveying messages, human faces has very many expressions and is efficient and honest in showing emotions. The tightening of the jaws, squinting of the eyes, furrow lines on the forehead show suspicion and negative emotion, while wide eyes relaxed muscles on the faces and loose furrow lines reveals the positive emotion of the subject (Becker, & Dutelle, 2013).

The movement of the nose can also be used to capture information. When the nose is wide open and the nose muscles tighten it indicates tension while, on the other hand relaxed nose muscles and loosened nostrils shows relaxed mood and positive emotions. The mouth muscles also communicates a lot, when the mouth muscles are relaxed and the lips move slowly exposed openly the positive emotions are exposed. In contrast tight jaw muscles and hidden lips show tension in the subject. Also, eyes are important in conveying messages, the squinting of the eyes shows anger or suspicion and the widening of eyes shows relaxation and comfort. Moreover, raising of shoulders, crossed arms and tighten elbows indicates discomfort and vice versa, when the hands are clutched tightly together and continuous rubbing reveals tension while relaxed hands freely hanging or placed on the lap shows relaxed mood and emotion. Leg movements if observed can also give information, the scrubbing of feet on the ground, crossing of legs and bending of knees clearly shows fear and discomfort while relaxed legs and flat knees display relaxation and positive feeling and emotions. (Inbau, 2014).

During investigation and acquisition of in formation the subjects always tend to defend themselves using several defensive mechanisms. There are various defence zones used by different people; they include the personal space, intimate zones, and proxemics zones among others. Different cultures have varied physical closeness level depending on the type of the situation that one is in. When one violates the require distance, subjects may be uncomfortable and defensive. The personal space of an individual is called proxemics. It is divided into four different classes; the intimate, personal, social and public distances. The intimate distance is rated on the close contact of touching. It is considered to be appropriate for privacy and getting involved in other persons not of a close relation is very disturbing to the subject. Attacking one on the basis of their personal state enables the interrogator to get hidden identity of an individual (Kocsis, 2009).

The personal distance is conducive for individuals having conversation. It becomes easier to see and read the subject’s expressions, the movement of the eyes and generally the body language. Hand shaking possibly occurs in the personal distances and this enables the knowledge of one’s feeling and response. He interference are brought in the feelings of a person can be seen if directly or indirectly attacked. The social distance is the normal distance in the working environment and social groups. The seating arrangement also influences the response to be given by an individual, some may show dominion and authority over others and formal relationship between the communicators. Eye contact and loud speech are essential to draw the attention and sufficient feedback is gained. Crossing the line of the formal interaction may lead to ending the communication but if approached positively, attacking the zone lead the respondent to give honest information. In the public distances the non-verbal communication is exaggerated for the effective communication, the hand gestures are widely used and mainly involves the communication between strangers. The rate of closeness is limited and therefore, the subjects are approached with respect to win the emotions and feelings. It helps in approaching others without threats and appropriately (Becker, & Dutelle, 2013).

The nonverbal cues are very important informative behaviours that affect the social relation of different persons. The nonverbal cues shown by an individual is subject to true or false interpretation that may result to misunderstandings. The cues emitted by an individual may support or contradict the words spoken by a person. It can be deceptive or express acceptance by the respondents. The acceptance level varies depending on the environment and the information being acquired. Attention should be paid to acquire the correct relation of words and body language, also one’s instincts should be trusted since it helps to know the honesty and the effectiveness of the messages collected. Critical evaluation of the nonverbal signs will help to know the level of acceptance from the person. The eye contact made between the parties is clear indication to understanding acceptance if consistent eye contact is maintained, it should be overly right with relaxed eye muscles and open eyebrows (Kocsis, 2009).

The facial expressions made may scare someone or welcome them for conversation. The loosened and relaxed face and jaw muscles, smiles on the face, exposed lips and emotional presence accompanied with a lot of interest from the person indicates warmth and positive emotion. Tone of the voices made can project warmth, confidence, trust, and the interest of the individual. Soft voice accompanied with laughter and no strains display the comfort of the respondent. The relaxed body, sloping shoulders, relaxed hand and leg positioning are the postures and gestures that give a go ahead in communication; it shows comfort and relaxed emotions of a person. Closeness and the distance between the communicating parties reveal an acceptance, when there is physical contact in the appropriate situation and both persons are comfortable radiance of warmth is transmitted during communication. Mirroring displays interest and acceptance between persons and it give assurance to others of interest in their communication and what they intend to say. It shows the reflection of the people closely related, if one person frowns and is disinterested it is reflected on the facial expressions made. The interrogator can take advantage of the positive reception to acquire true and honest information. (Inbau, 2014).

Stress is a response made physically to occurrence of events that are threatening and upsetting the body balance. When danger is sensed the body develop defences as the fight or flight response for survival and protection. It helps one to come across a challenge, and sharpens the concentration of a person. There are various forms of stress signals exhibited in different persons they include; the physical signals, behavioural, cognitive, and emotional signals among others. The cognitive signal is exhibited by factors and signs such as memory problem. One is unable to clearly recall information and they tend to be forgetful. Moreover, one has the inability to concentrate on certain activities such as conversation; minimal concentration clearly shows the stress that one is going through. Poor judgement of information is also seen and the person seems to concentrate more only on the negative side of messages, anxiety is expressed and a lot of thoughts race in the person’s mind. One is constantly worried of the situation and lead life with frustrations (Kocsis, 2009).

The emotional signals are read from one’s feelings and emotions. It is identified by observing the mood swings of a person, stressed person always tend to be sad and at times happy. Also, when one is stressed they are easily irritated and are short tempered that’s they are easily annoyed and cannot hold the emotions. Agitation and difficulty to be relaxed the person is constantly strained and they tend to think a lot and they are restricted to certain conditions. In addition the person appears to be constantly unhappy and depressed; the feeling of loneliness and isolation is experienced. Lastly the behavioural change is seen when one is stressed, eating and sleeping too much or less, isolation from others, avoiding and neglecting responsibilities, excess use of alcohol or drugs to relax and nervousness is seen (Kocsis, 2009).

References

Becker, R. F., & Dutelle, A. W. (2013). Criminal investigation. Burlington, Mass: Jones & Bartlett Learning.

Inbau, F. E. (2014). Essentials of the Reid technique: Criminal interrogation and confessions.

Kocsis, R. N. (2009). Applied Criminal Psychology: A Guide to Forensic Behavioral Sciences.

Springfield: Charles C Thomas Publisher, LTD.

Non-truth Telling News

Non-truth Telling News

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Non-truth Telling News

The Media today is under the influence of the affluent and powerful group in the society and they are charged with the responsibility of dictating how operations should be run and the kind of information to be disseminated to the people. The truth is defined has having three dimensions and the news is mostly one-dimensional depending with the sensitivity of the matter at hand. Some fields the news is vast and complex and in this case it makes it extremely difficult for the media house to communicate to the public what really happened. The one notable negative aspect of the present day media is the deterioration of professional media and the responsibility of journalism is not considered resulting in the dissemination of news where some information or truth is withheld CITATION Pro18 l 1033 (Probueka, 2018). The main purpose of media messages today is no longer passing of reliable knowledge and a deep reflection but the stimulation of the most preferred emotions especially from the specific target audience. The essay demonstrates how the media is manipulating individuals by not being truthful and the detrimental consequences of their very decisions. The discussion is supported by specific stories that demonstrate how manipulative and how the media may at times exempt some parts in a story.

CNN on Trump Allies Link to Russia

In 2016 during the presidential campaign, CNN were victims of reports that a close ally of president Trump Anthony Scramucci had meetings with people who were close to President Putin. What the article was implying was that during the campaign, Trump may have used his allies to try and get help on Russia in Running a campaign that would lead to him winning the election in his favor. Later on however, CNN had to pull down the post and wrote an apology. The news journalist who also had written the piece resigned voluntarily yet they were among a recently formed task force on the investigative team that would be in charge of the CNN investigations (Sampathkumar, 2017). The news article had already caused tension with people from the Left accusing people from the right of trying to sabotage the election. CNN stated that the article had been uploaded without it following the important steps that were necessary.

Pizzeria Theory

2016 was a period that was filled with false news and a lot of misinformation. Days just before the presidential election was to take place, people walk up to the news that leaders from the Democratic party were running a child trafficking ring and was being aided by two restaurant DC, Comet and Pizzagate. This was after Mr. John Podesta’s email who was Hillary Clintons chief campaign was hacked and according to news source there was a decoded message they were working with James Alefantis who was owner of Comet in child abuse (Kang, 2016). When the mews broke out high profile officials from Republican party helped in spreading of the propaganda including Presidents Trump son. This caused a lot of reaction that a gunman walked in to DC, Comet with a rifle and opened fire, luckily no one was injured. The case shows how unsubstantiated news report could cause harm in a couple of minutes. Mr. Alefantis who was a Democratic supporter and his 40 employees had become caught up in a storm of fake news that even some main media houses were running.

Washington Post and Whitehouse Claims on Iraq weapons

Washington Post in August 2004 admitted to underplaying skepticism when they were reporting on the White House statement on Iraq weapons of mass destruction. The White House pronouncement by Colin Powell stated that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction and most news sources did not do their research but instead created a post that seemed to favor the war. For the Washington Post, the White House pronouncement covered the front page as if the news were true only for the statements to be later found to be erroneous. The Post in its part took blame that it covered more news on why the war was needed as compared to those of the people who were against the war (Gary, 2004). Media has been known at times to favor what the government says especially if it involves information from the Middle East or Africa. Open they will run with what their government states instead of first doing a fact checking.

Martha Stewart plays a critical role as her thoughts on keeping and maintaining high standards can be appropriately borrowed by the press. The standards to which we hold Martha Stewart is not the same standards media is held to. When Martha Stewart was reported to have committed the crime all medias ran the story with panels in various newsroom discussing of her crime and what years she would likely to face. This is what celebrities go through, when it is purported that they have committed a crime all news sources will run the story on how guilty he is likely to be. However, for news sources, when mistakes are made, there are no headlines on these mistakes. What most do is that they offer an apology to the offended party and then pull down the post. This is despite the fact that they may have cause harm to the public by printing of information that was not truthful. The public do not seem to judge as harshly the news article that report the fake news as they do to celebrities such as Martha Stewart. In journalism however, the standards to be maintained in this case are the code of ethics that govern the journalism profession. The ethics include; accountability, truthfulness, honesty and excellence in performance of duties and responsibilities.

The line between falsehood and truth has been blur long enough and it has shaped the attitude of the society at large. The mass media has a responsibility to always give the right information to the general public. In this environment where the press is tactful and is in a symbiotic relationship with the government, the public has not failed to note that the press isn’t performing its duties as it should. The philosophies of Aristotle and Plato on the principle of virtue have been of great importance as they apply in the analysis of the performance of the press. The philosophers emphasized on the virtues of mind, character and sense of honesty. If the virtues are applied in the press, then there will be a definite satisfaction and manipulation of the general public will not be there and hence the press will perform its duties effectively satisfying the people that they serve.

References

Kang, C. (2016, November 22). Fake News Onslaught Targets Pizzeria as Nest of Child-Trafficking. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/technology/fact-check-this-pizzeria-is-not-a-child-trafficking-site.html

Sampathkumar M. (2017, June 26). CNN forced to delete false Trump-Russia story. Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/cnn-trump-russia-story-deleted-retraction-anthony-scaramucci-money-apology-a7809521.html

Younge, G. (2004, August 13). Washington Post apologizes for underplaying WMD skepticism. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/aug/13/pressandpublishing.usa#maincontent

References.

BIBLIOGRAPHY l 1033 Probueka, D. (2018). Truth and Lies in journalism: A dispute concerning the accurate presentation of information. Sciendo, 81-89.

Sutherland, A. (2012). News and The Whole Truth. The Atlantic.

Vanderwicken, P. (2015). Why the News is Not the Truth. Havard Business Review.

Zakhem, A. J. (2017). Honesty and Intergruty in Business. Springer, 1037-1046.

Non-Traditional Families The Fosters

Non-Traditional Families: The Fosters

Name:

Course:

Institution:

Date:

Family relationships are some of the most intricate and important interactions that humans have with each other. Although all families go through rough patches, they are held together by love, respect and acceptance of each other. Through the years, the definition of family has evolved to many other forms aside from heterosexual couples with children. These non-traditional families have become widely normalized and accepted as media broadcast them. Examples of nontraditional families and relationships are depicted on the popular ABC TV series, ‘The Fosters.’

The relationship between Lena Adams and Stef foster is the focal point of the story. The same-sex couple is raising five children together. Their relationship is shown to be a stable, loving and trusting one, though not without challenges. Stef was previously married to Mike Foster, with whom she shares a 16 year old son, Brandon. Stef was unhappy in her relationship with Mike, and they got divorced. Stef and Lena met and fell in love. Most of their family are accepting of their relationship, although they face some stigma for being a same-sex couple and parents. Stef and Lena work hard to be open with one another and with their children. Raising children in a same-sex parent home can be challenging (Di Battista et al., 2020), as one of their children says they never asked for two moms. However, Stef and Lena are dedicated, loving parents to their children.

Lena and Stef go through rough patches like any other couple but put a lot of effort into communication. They express their insecurities to each other, making their relationship stronger. An example of this is when Lena tells Stef that she wants to have a biological child. Lena says that everyone in their home is related to at least one person by blood, but she has no blood relation. She gets pregnant but suffers a miscarriage. In the end, she accepts that family is defined by love. Stef remains supportive of Lena through this journey. Lena also understands and encourages Stef when the latter opens up about past struggles with her sexuality. Overall, the pair have a healthy relationship.

Another complex relationship in the series ‘The Fosters’ is the relationship between Mike, Stef and Stef’s new family. The two were previously married and share a son, Brandon. The two have to coparent their son, further complicated by Lena as a stepmother. The three parents have to work together to coparent their son, each with different parenting styles. The parents have to work to accommodate each other’s style (Andrade, & van Eeden, 2019). Brandon, just like any teen, goes through challenges in his romantic relationships, relationships with his siblings However, his parents are always there for him through it. The relationship between Brandon and his parents is characterized by love, respect and support from both sides.

Brandon is the oldest child and is a good son by all accounts. He seeks his parents’ advice on major issues in his life. During his early years, he is an open child who is very close with his parents. However, as he grows older, he struggles with being open especially when he is ashamed of his choices. Luckily, his parents remain understanding and supportive even though they might not be happy with his choices. When Brandon and his foster sister Callie develop romantic feelings for each other, his parents are very angry. They get a restraining order keeping him from going near Callie while she is at a group home awaiting adoption (Freeman, 2014). The phase passes and the two become close siblings. His parents remained strict with him, which worked out for them as they got to adopt Callie into their family.

Despite living in a separate household, Brandon and his dad, Mike, are very close. Brandon turns to his dad during times of crisis in both minor and major issues. One impressive characteristic of the relationship with Mike is that Mike always makes sure to discuss any issue about Brandon with Stef, meaning they remain on the same page. Mike respects the fact that the two of them have to agree on what is best for their son, and Stef makes sure to include Lena so that she never feels left out. Mike is also a close friend of the whole family, stepping in whenever any of them needs help. In the morning before Brandon gets married, his dad is there to advise him at one of the most important times of his life. The two share an admirable bond. Brandon handles the situation with his parents and Lena quite maturely, and the three parents hardly ever fight as they remain on the same page.

‘The Fosters’ is an interesting and eye-opening story into the intricacies of blended families and same-sex marriage. Lena and Stef share an admirable bond, both in their romantic relationship and their relationships with their children. These relationships are characterized by love, openness, acceptance and tolerance for each other. As a result, the children grow into well-balanced, responsible individuals. Stef and Lena work hard into creating a loving home for their children while enforcing necessary boundaries and discipline for all of them. The TV series shows that nontraditional families are just like any other, and that they go through good and bad times like any other family. The show also shows audiences that nontraditional families should be normalized and accepted. There is still some stigma on children who come from nontraditional families (Ioverno et al., 2020). This should not happen as all individuals deserve love and respect regardless of their background. ‘The Fosters’ does an excellent job representing nontraditional families on TV.

References

Andrade, G., & van Eeden‐Moorefield, B. (2019). Stepparents and Blended Families. The Encyclopedia of Child and Adolescent Development, 1-10.

Di Battista, S., Paolini, D., & Pivetti, M. (2020). Attitudes toward same-sex parents: Examining the antecedents of parenting ability evaluation. Journal of GLBT Family Studies, 17(3), 273-291.

Freeman, C. (2014). Peter Paige and the making of ‘The Fosters.’ The Gay & Lesbian Review Worldwide, 21(3), 38-40.Ioverno, S., Carone, N., Lingiardi, V., Nardelli, N., Pagone, P., Pistella, J., … & Baiocco, R. (2018). Assessing prejudice toward two-father parenting and two-mother parenting: The beliefs on same-sex parenting scale. The Journal of Sex Research, 55(4-5), 654-665.

Nonparametric Methods Case scenario

Nonparametric Methods/ Case scenario

Presented by

Institution

Part I: Nonparametric Methods

Sign test

A sign test is a nonparametric method used in statistics for comparison of a single sample with a hypothesized value. The test is commonly used in situations where a paired t-test is traditionally applied. In the study, a sample of n patients is used in determining the preference for central nervous system saturation. The main objective of conducting the test was to determine whether a difference in preferences between the central nervous system saturation and the time of oxygen admission existed. Sign test was explored in paired data whereby central nervous system saturation data from ten patients was collected on admission and 6 hours after admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). A plus and a minus sign were used to record the preference data. The plus sign was used when the difference between the time of admission and 6 hours after admission was positive while the minus sign was used when the difference was negative (Walley, 2011).

On the other hand, the sign test is commonly used where the researcher had initially placed study hypotheses. From the study, the null hypotheses suggested that there could be no effect of 6 hours of ICU treatment on central venous oxygen saturation treatment. The null hypotheses suggested that the difference between the time of admission and time after 6 hours would be zero. The sign test method used was to achieve 50% of the differences below zero (negative) and the other 50% above zero (positive). The results indicated otherwise because only 2 differences recorded a minus sign and this led to a 0.11 probability of occurrence in case the null hypothesis was true. From the normal distribution table, the P value of 0.02 was observed from the paired t-test conducted. The two tests provided different results that concluded that, for sign test the differences should be independent of one another while for t-test the differences should follow a normal distribution (Mendenhall & Beaver, 2003).

Part II: Cancer Case Scenario

Various regression and correlation constructs were used in the scenario. Firstly, the study used P-value and r-value for hypotheses test and correlation of coefficient respectively. The following correlation values used to find the relationship between variables by determining the preference of the results observed. In addition, the correlations determined the association between the measure of adiposity (BMI, WHR) and serum estradiol. To determine the relationship between various variable, an X-Y graph should be constructed. These forms the regression constructs of the study. The linear regression of (Y, X) is equivalent to (r2, P).

In analyzing the cancer case scenario, the sign test would be the most appropriate followed by the hypothesis test (the t-test). To start with, I would get the difference between BMI and serum estradiol values from the excel sheet to determine the data preference. Using a null hypothesis that states that, there is a crude association between the two measure of adiposity (BMI and WHR) and serum estradiol. If more than 50% of total people tested show negative results, the null hypothesis is true. From table 1, the positive signs exceeded the negative signs showing that the null hypothesis is false. This indicates a crude association between either measure of adiposity (BMI, WHR) and serum estradiol. The following method is recommendable because it avoids complex calculations and easily arrives at the answer. Secondly, I would carry out a t-test to determine P-values and r-values. The following constructs will be used because the study compares only two variables at a time. Only 49 out of 151 samples tested had negative nalues. This is a probability of (49/151) = 0.3245. Thus; P = 0.3425. From the normal distribution table, r = 0.633 (Ahsanullah & Nevzorov, 2013). The following results show aa lack of correlation between the measure of adiposity and serum estradiol.

References

Ahsanullah, M., & Nevzorov, V. B. (2013). An introduction to order statistics. Amsterdam:

Atlantis Press.

Mendenhall, W., & Beaver, R. J. (2003). Introduction to probability and statistics (11th ed.).

Pacific Grove, CA: Thomson-Brooks/Cole.

Walley, K. R. (2011). “Use of central venous oxygen saturation to guide therapy”, Critical Care

Research Laboratories. Vol. 184, No. 5.

Noncompetition and Nondisclosure

Noncompetition and Nondisclosure for Sandra

Student’s name

Institutional affiliation

Course

Professor’ name

Date

Noncompetition and Nondisclosure

During the enforcement of this agreement and upon its termination or expiration Sandra XX agrees to desist from disclosing Too Strange to Eat’s trade secrets, customer lists, or other classified material. Sandra XX agrees to take necessary and reasonable security measures to curtail potential accidental disclosure and industrial espionage.

During the enforcement of this agreement, the employee consents to use her best efforts to analyze the market for new products, create new pasties, push the sale of new and existing products, and follow the noncompetition and nondisclosure of this agreement. Upon termination or expiration of this agreement, Sandra XX concurs not to compete with Too Strange to Eat Bakery for a period of (10) years within a 100-mile radius of Too Strange to Eat Bakery, Tampa, Florida. This ban ceases to apply if the agreement ends because Too Strange to Eat Bakery dishonored the terms of the contract.

Competition hereby means working or owning a company of the following type: a bakery, a coffee shop or business, a baking truck, a home baking business, a catering business, or a food blog.

Sandra XX agrees to cater for the liquidated damages in the amount of $ (20,000) for any breach of an agreement not to compete contained in sub-section/paragraph (b) of this clause.

Sandra XX concurs not to employ the research conducted in the duration of the time they worked for Too Strange to Eat Bakery while working for a competitor company of Too Strange to Eat Bakery.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, (Too Strange to Eat Bakery) and (Sandra XX) have signed this agreement.

____________________________

Too Strange to Eat Bakery

______________________________ _____________________

Sandra XX Date

About the Resources Employed

I employed various sources to draft the noncompete and nondisclosure clause for Sandra’s management role at Too Strange to Eat Bakery. Of the three resources used, I found the information from Piconepress.com to be handy. The information here served me best as it was comprehensive and precise. According to the piconepress website, the information was compiled from different sources in the ITCS at the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities. I trusted it because the data was derived from an academic institution, the University of Minnesota. The templates here were derived from the piconeress.com website. What makes the data reliable is the fact that an academic institution compiled the data. The University of Minnesota is an accredited institution of higher learning that prides itself in undertaking qualified research and reporting correct findings. As such, the data from this source qualifies as credible because verifying such kind of information is possible. Additionally, data from educational websites such as the University of Minnesota are a safe bet to get correct information because such institutions barely have any hidden agenda. They do not have any ulterior motive besides informing readers of the truth. Furthermore, the individuals who undertake the research are professionals in specific fields, making them a good fit. In essence, I found the source to be thorough, well thought, well discussed, and argued. The information is also credible because it was objective, accurate, less confusing, and has wide coverage. It was only after wading through tons of information that I encountered this source.

Sources

Non-Compete Sample Clauses: 6k Samples. (2021). Law Insider. https://www.lawinsider.com/clause/non-compete?cursor=ClISTGoVc35sYXdpbnNpZGVyY29udHJhY3RzcjMLEhlDbGF1c2VTbmlwcGV0R3JvdXBfdjI0X2VuIhRub24tY29tcGV0ZSMwMDAwMDAwYQwYACAA

Picone, J. (2021). The Institute for Signal and Information Processing. Piconepress.Com. https://www.isip.piconepress.com

S. (2018, November 14). Non-compete Provision. SHRM. https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/tools-and-samples/hr-forms/pages/agreement_non-competeprovision.aspx

Non-stationary Model

Non– Stationary Model

Introduction

Corporations and financial institutions as well as researchers and individual investors often use financial time series data such as exchange rates, asset prices, inflation, GDP and other macroeconomic indicator in analysis of stock market, economic forecasts or studies of the data itself (Kitagawa, G., & Akaike, H, 1978). To apply data refining data is the key as it enables one to isolate the data points that are relevant to your stock reports. The data points have covariance, variances and mean that changes with time that is the data are non – stationary. Non – stationary behavior can be cycles, random walks, trends or the combination of the three. Non – stationary data are unpredictable and cannot be forecasted or modeled. The result achieved by using non – stationary time series may indicate relationship between two variables where one does not exist so they may be spurious. In order to receive reliable result and also consistent the non – stationary data need to be transformed into stationary data. In contrast to the non – stationary process that has a variable mean and a variance that does not remain near or returns to a long run mean over time, the stationary process reverts around a constant variance and has a constant long term mean independent of time.

A stationary time series has a constant variance, a constant mean and the variance is independent of time. Without stationery is important for standard econometric theory and is also crucial for one to obtain consistent estimators. Plotting the series against time is the quickest way of telling if a process is stationary. Chances are that the series is stationary if the graph crosses the mean of the sample many times. If the graph does not cross the mean is an indication of persistent trends away from the mean of the series. A variable whose it mean grows around a fixed trend is a trend stationary variable. This enables a classical way of describing an economical time series which grows at a constant rate. A trend series generally tends to evolve around a steady, up warding sloping curve that does not have big swings away from that curve. De trending the series give a stationary process.

The following types of non – stationary processes are the possible candidates:

The examples of non – stationary processes are random walk without a drift, random walk with a drift and deterministic trends.

Random walk without a drift or pure random walk (Y t = Yt-1 + ε t )

Random walk predicts that the value at a time “t” will be equal to the previous period value plus a stochastic component that is a white noise. Stochastic component is identically and independent distributed with mean “0” and variance “σ²”. Random walk can also be named as process or unit with stochastic trend or a process integrated of some order. The process can either move in a negative or positive direction from the mean hence it is a non-mean reverting process. Random walk goes to the infinity as the time goes to the infinity and also evolves over time; this make a random walk cannot be predicted. In a purely random process every element is independent of every other element and each element has an identical distribution.

Random walk with drift (Y t = α + Yt-1 + ε t )

The random walk with a drift predicts that the value at a time “t” will equal the last previous period’s value plus a drift or a constant and a white noise term. Random walk with a drift does not revert to a long run mean and has variance dependent on time. Stochastic process in this case area defined in terms of its behavior at time t where t is an integer value. Since t is a quantity that can be mapped to the integer then there is no problem but essential difference occurs if t is a continuous variable. One considers the value of the time series at a given time to be continuous random variable. Many times series mostly those from volcanology take other kind of values, for example the kinds of discrete events or count values such as those recording number of eruption.

Deterministic trend (Y t = α + βt + ε t  )

Deterministic trend predicts that the value at a time “t” will equal the last previous period’s value plus a drift or a constant and a white noise same as random walk with a drift. The value at time “t” in the case of a deterministic trend it is regressed on a time trend (βt) while in the case of a random walk is regressed on a time the last period’s value (Yt-1). Deterministic trend is a non – stationary process that has a mean that grows around a fixed trend, which is independent of time and constant.

Random walk with drift and deterministic trend (Y t = α + Yt-1 + βt + ε t )

Random walk with drift and deterministic trend is a non – stationary process that combines a random walk with a deterministic trend and a drift component. The process specifies the value a time “t” by the drift, a stochastic component, a trend and a last period value.

Trend and difference stationary

A random walk without or with a drift can be transformed to a stationary process by differencing (subtracting Yt-1 from Y t, taking the difference Y t – Yt-1) correspondingly to Y t – Yt-1 = ε t or Y t – Yt-1= α + ε t and then the process becomes difference-stationary. The process loses one observation each time the difference is taken and is the disadvantage of differencing stationary. A non – stationary process with a deterministic trend becomes stationary only after removing de trending or the trend. For example, deterministic trend is transformed into stationary process by subtracting the trend (Cowpertwait, P. S., & Metcalfe, A. V, 2009). When one transfers non – stationary to stationary through de trending no observation is lost. In the case of a random walk with a deterministic trend and a drift, de trending may remove both the drift and deterministic trend but the variance will go to the infinity. Due to this the differencing must also be applied to remove the stochastic trend.

Table 1 Differencing as shown in the table 1 there is difference between the curve of random walk with drift and the difference stationary. The advantage of the difference is that the method removes the trend in the variance, stochastic trend and also differencing is simple to use. The disadvantage is that differencing process losses one observation each time the difference is taken.

Table 2 de trending or removing the trend

After removing the trend, non – stationary process with deterministic trend becomes stationary the process is also known as de trending. The trend βt is subtracted from the non- stationary process α + βt + ε t to be transformed into a stationary process α + ε t. When removing trend to transform a non – stationary process to a stationary one no observation are lost. Removing trend can remove the drift and the deterministic trend, whereas the variance will continue to the infinity. For one to remove the stochastic trend the differencing must also be applied.

In financial model, using non – stationary time series data produces spurious and unreliable result and leads to poor forecasting and understanding. The problem to be solved is to transform the time series data so that it becomes stationary. Differencing is used to transform non – stationary process with a drift or a random walk without or with a drift to stationary process. If the time data being analyzed contain a deterministic trend, the spurious result is avoided by de trending. The non – stationary series may combine a deterministic and stochastic trend at the same time and to avoid obtaining misleading result both the de trending and differencing are applies. De trending removes the deterministic trend and the differencing removes the trend in the variance.

One should always check whether two variables are integrated the same way to obtain meaningful result. Stationary stochastic process is the one where given t1 , . . . ., t l the joint statistical distribution of Xt1, . . . . . . . , X tl is the same as the joint statistical distribution of Xt1+r, . . . . ., X tl + r for all l and r. this means that all moments of all degrees that is variances, expectation, third order and higher of the process anywhere are the same. This also means that the joint distribution of ( X t + r , X) is the same as the ( X t, X s ) and hence cannot depend on s or t but only on the distance between s and t that is s – t. This stationarity is too strict for everyday life a weaker of weaker stationarity or second order is usually used. Second order means that variance of stochastic process and mean do not depend on t.

Global non- stationarityThe random walk is example of a global non – stationarity. The parameter and process of global non-stationarity process are fixed some time ago generally infinity and then the process itself evolves whereas the rules of evolution does not change.

AR, MA and ARMA models

This segment considers some primary probability models that are extensively used for modeling a given time series.

Moving Average models.

Probably the next simplest model is that constructed by the simplest linear combinations of dawdled elements of a totally purely random process, {ǫ t} with Eǫt = 0. A moving mean process, {Xt}, of the order q is then defined as .

………………………………………………………………… equation 11.5

And the abbreviated notation is noted as MA (q). Normally, with a newly redefined procedure it is of interest to note that all its statistical properties. For an MA (q) process, the average is simple to compute, since all the expectation of a given sum is the sum of all the expectations):

……. equation 11.6

This is simply because E(ǫ r) = 0 for any and all values of r. A totally similar argument can be applied for the divergent calculation

……………………………………………………….. equation 11.7

Since var [(ǫ r ) = σ 2] for all values of t

The sample distribution of the autocorrelation can be calculated as [r (τ ) = c (τ ) / c (0)]. If, when one calculates the sample auto covariance, it chops off at a particular lag q, for example it is effectively and adequately zero for lags of [ q + 1 ] or higher, then one can contend the MA(q) model in above equation as the implicit in probability model.

The only most quantity that we should concern ourselves with is only the auto covariance. A cheapest way of seeing what the auto covariance is to take into assumption that the procedures is stationary and multiply in both sides of (figure 11.17) by Xt−τ and take expectations:

This equates to Qt is independent of [X t− τ] and hence [E(ǫ t X t− τ ) = E ǫ t E X t− τ = 0] since the totally purely random procedure here has zero average. Thus (equation11.35) turns into

The formula (equation11.3) is a simplest example of a well-known Yule-Walker equation, more complex versions can be used to obtain a formulae for the auto covariance of more universal AR (p) procedures.

There are several checks and try outs that one can easily make but the absolute comparison of the try outs auto covariance with source values, such as the model of auto covariance given in equation below, is a major first step in model identification.

Also, at this point one can question what one means by the term “effectively zero”. The try out auto covariance is an empirically and statistically computed from the random sample distribution at hand. If more informational data in the time series were to be collected, or another try out stretch used then the sample auto covariance would be greatly different (although for extremely long samples and stationary time series the probability of a huge difference should be much smaller). Hence, try out auto covariance (autocorrelations) are significant random quantities and hence is “effectively zero” render into a continuous statistical hypothesis tests on whether the true auto correlation is equivalent to zero or not.

Finally, while we are still on the subject of sample auto covariance we notice that at the extremes points of the range of τ

……………..equation 11.4

Which also a times happens to be this sample variance and

……… equation 11.5

The horizontally oriented dashed lines in the bottom plot of the above figure [Figure 11.1] are approximately 95% significance bands. Any function which is outside any of these bands (like the ones shown in the figure at specified lags 1 and 2) are viewed as very important, or at least worth further rumination. It is also interesting to realize that although [ρ (τ ) = 0 ] for [ τ > 2] the sample autocorrelations for all lags 10 to 14 inclusive all look quite huge: This is merely an demonstration of the point out that the sample ac f function is a totally random quantity and some extensive care and a large enough experience is required to prevent excessive reading into them.

Autoregressive models.

The other primary development from a totally pure random procedure is the autoregressive model, which, as its name suggests, models a procedure where future values somehow will depend on the recent epoch. Moreover, {X t} follows an AR(p) model which is qualified by

Where {ǫt} is a totally pure random procedure. For the sake of this discussion we shall adopt time-honored history and firstly put into consideration the most simplest AR model: AR(1). Here we simplify notation and define {Xt} by

Since we the ǫt are different and independent

Then with respect to other equations not necessarily indicated above allude that final quantity that we need to worry ourselves with is the only auto-covariance (Schneider, R., & Weil, W, 2008). The simplest way of seeing what the auto covariance actually is, is to assume that the whole process is totally stationary and multiply both sides of (equation 11.17) by [ X t – τ] and take expectations:

We have simulated in total two AR (1) processes each of 200 different observations. The first [ar1] processes is a realization insinuating that [α = 0.9] and the second,[ar 1neg] is an actualization where[ α = −0.9]. Plots of each subsequent actualization and their autocorrelation coefficients in the functions appear. The total exponential decay nature of the auto correlation of [ar1pos] is clear and one can easily note that [ρ (1) = α = 0.9] from the plot section. For [ar1neg] similar considerations do apply except that [ρ(τ )] has an extra [(−1) τ] factor which results in the oscillation

ARMA Models.

It is by a fact that both AR and MA models expresses different behaviors of stochastic interdependence. AR procedures encapsulate a Markov-like quality such that the future events depend on the past, whereas MA processes bring into combination of both elements of randomness from the past events using a non-static moving window. An evident step is to combine all both types of behavior into one ARMA (p, q) model which is found by purely simple concatenations. The procedure [X t] is ARMA(p, q) if

Fitting ARMA models.

By now, we have just identified the probability models implicit in ARMA processes and some other mathematical quantities that are related to them. Of course, once one has enough real data one would like to correctly know the answers to questions such as “Are all these models suitable for my data?”, “Can I accommodate all these models in my data?” “How do I fit these models?”, “Do the first model fit to the data well?”. These kind of questions lead directly to the Box-Jenkins procedure, see Box et al. (1994). Part of this procedure involves analyzing the sample autocorrelation coefficient functions (and are related the function is usually known as partial autocorrelation function) to settle on the order of any AR or MA terms. However, there are several other prospectors such as getting rid of deterministic courses, removing occupants, or/and checking residues. Actually, a full intervention is way beyond the length restrains of this article so we prefer referring the any interested reader to The Chatfield (2003) in the first and preceding instance.

Conclusion

Differencing transforms non – stationary process with a drift or a random walk without or with a drift to stationary process. If the time data being analyzed contain a deterministic trend, the spurious result is avoided by de trending. The non – stationary series may combine a deterministic and stochastic trend at the same time and to avoid obtaining misleading result both the de trending and differencing are applies. De trending removes the deterministic trend and the differencing removes the trend in the variance.

References

Kitagawa, G., & Akaike, H. (1978). A procedure for the modeling of non-stationary time series. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 30(1), 351-363.

Cowpertwait, P. S., & Metcalfe, A. V. (2009). Non-stationary Models. InIntroductory Time Series with R (pp. 137-157). Springer New York.

Schneider, R., & Weil, W. (2008). Non-stationary Models. Stochastic and Integral Geometry, 521-556.

Non Truth Telling News Sources

Non Truth Telling News Sources

Name

Institution

Date

Non Truth Telling News Sources

Cases of news journals or article that do not seem to give complete information has been on the rise in the 21st century. Getting the right and accurate information out there is no longer a big deal as getting a news piece or article that will get more reading and clicks which translates to more money is far much important. The press has often been seen as a corrupt entity just as much as how the government is corrupt. News press accept bribes not a physical way but in a systematic sense. The news should often report the truth as they owe the public however we see that the government and the media are entwined in a circle of mythmaking and manipulation. Certain news articles are often written to propagate certain agendas or to pass a misleading information out there. This essay will look at three news stories that have non truth telling context.

CNN in 2017 reported a story that linked Antony Scaramucci to a Russian investment firm. The story reported that the Congress was investigating a Russian investment fund that had ties with Trump officials. According to the reporter, the information came from an anonymous single source. The story was not really wrong but it did lack enough facts for it to be published. The article reported that a meeting had taken place between Antony Scaramucci and Kirill Dmitriev (Farhi, 2017). This news led to resignation of three CNN journalist who were part of an investigative team that had been created in CNN to look into investigative stories that will be run by the news network. As news network it is important to get the facts right on a story before publishing especially if it involves hefty matters that are likely to get the attention of many. Many news sources know that any link between Trump and Russia is likely to get a huge reading thus there was need to get all the facts right before publishing the story. The fact that a reputable news network would publish a news article based on a single anonymous source without proof is quite saddening and goes against the ethics of journalism. Plato and Aristotle have often been seen as post-truth philosophers. Plato in terms of truth and governance he talks of how to set up a just society and one way of setting it up is having a divided view on what one should let people know. Plato in his argument believes that the kind of knowledge a society needs is the one that is necessary for their lives. In our case, the meeting by Antony Scaramucci and Kirill Dmitriev should probably have been more verified before being published.

In 2016 during the Presidential campaign, a term Pizzagate theory emerged. This was a fake story that had been created on Hillary Clinton Presidential campaign. According to the story, John Podesra who was Hillary Clinton campaign manager had his email hacked. There were speculations that he among other top Democratic officials ran a human trafficking ring. Although this information was not founded there were several mainstream medias that took up the story. According to them two restaurants Pizzagate and DC, Comet Ping Pong pizzeria were where the meetings were held. This story did quickly spread to all social media platforms and even top officials most from the Republican party were engaging in it. Alex Jones who was among those who helped spread the propaganda even in his radio show offered an apology (Rosenberg, 2017). With a lot of engagements, it was getting it quickly did spread although every single accusation was false. This false story caused a lot of damage to the two restaurants and while the news stories were running they were losing profits because were avoiding the place. There was also a shooting as a man walked into Comet Pizzeria with an assault rifle and fired shots because of the non-truth telling news that were being spread.

Mainstream medias have fallen victims of reporting half-baked news that seem to have little lies. Recently Fox news offered an apology on their fake news that was targeting Cal Poly. There was a news headline after they interviewed a conservative student on the plight of conservative that said “CAL POLY PLOTS TO REDUCE WHITE ENROLLMENT” (Sheeler, 2018). This was actually untrue as it was claiming that Cal Poly was using a race-based admission process v which was against Proposition 209 passed by Californian voters in 1996 that prohibited the public universities from using race to increase either the number of Latinos, African American or other underrepresented students. This caused a lot of anger that Fox eventually had to apologize for this mistake. When one got to read the article, the headline might have been misleading but the content gave a little bit of an understanding of what they were saying. With the lie on their headline, they were more likely to get the clicks and more people were likely to read the article as opposed to if they actually used the correct news headline.

When Martha Stewart was linked to the crime of Insider trading at Imclone. In 2001, she sold her shares of the company and just two days later the stock values dropped. By selling her shares before the value dropped she had saved $45,673. However, she was not the only one that had benefitted as the CEO had also sold his shares thus they were faced with the case of illegal insider trading. From Stewart’s case, prosecutors worked hard to try and prove that Steward had sold her shares from nonpublic information. According to Martha Stewart, individuals should never be ashamed of their achievements and achievements are only possible when the right standards are maintained. Stewart is remembered for being an over-achiever and emphasizing that standard should be kept high always. Therefore, for the right information to be communicated to the population, standards should be kept high. As a public figure most thought that she should not have committed the crime and should not have concealed information from the law enforcers. We are often too tough on celebrities and the standards we hold them are too high that we do not often want them associated with any wrong doing. If a celebrity name comes up in a crime people are likely to conclude he is guilty although he may be innocent. This standards are not the same as those we hold news sources.All over the world, there is stiff competition over the very limited resources available. in this overheated atmosphere many media firms may tend to compromise their standards as they try to get an audience and a share of the market. Standards can only be maintained if the organizations strive to develop concrete internal structures that respect good governance, transparency and editorial independence. On Standards in journalism are the values and chords that guide and safeguard the profession. Truthfulness is a standard that should be maintained by any medial house. Accuracy and independence should also be upheld at all cost. The acquisition and the dissemination of the news or information by the media house should be free from bias and fair in every means possible. Public accountability is a standard and a code of ethic that should be respected and should guide any media house or newsroom activities. Professionalism, reliability, and public accountability of any media organization stand out as the three main ethical standards. When the standards are implemented and consistently maintained, the organization will be recognized and will have a strong reputation hence influencing the position of the firm with the public and in the journalism industry.

References

Farhi, P. (2017, June 27). CNN’s Russia story debacle came at the worst possible time for the network. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/cnns-russia-story-debacle-came-at-the-worst-possible-time-for-the-network/2017/06/27/8eb23616-5b3d-11e7-a9f6-7c3296387341_story.htmlRosenberg, E. (2017, March 25). Alex Jones Apologizes for Promoting ‘Pizzagate’ Hoax. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/25/business/alex-jones-pizzagate-apology-comet-ping-pong.html

Sheeler, A. (2018, July 13). Fox News falsely reported that Cal Poly is plotting to cut white enrollment. Retrieved from https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/education/article214844625.html

Non traditional petroleum resources

Non traditional petroleum resources

Traditionally, petroleum geologist has been concerned with the exploration of natural gas and crude oil as the sole source of energy. However, other non traditional petroleum resources hold large amounts of energy and include coal-bed methane, shale gas, oil shales, gas hydrates and tar sands. Their extraction has been difficult mainly since the cost involved in production petroleum from the traditional sources is low therefore inhabiting technological research on their extraction. With the increase in the production cost of the traditional petroleum resources, focus has shifted to development of production methods for the non traditional methods.

Solid and plastic hydrocarbons

These are mostly found as in sedimentary rocks of varied ages. They are mostly viscous but their viscosity would decrease as temperature increases. The hydrocarbons come as pools or lakes on the surface of the earth and distributed in pores and veins on the subsurface. They may occur as secondary deposits or inspissated deposits. Inspissated deposits refer to heavy hydrocarbons which are devoid of the light fraction. This happens where a combination of erosion, uplift and migration brings liquid oil accumulation to the earth’s surface. Secondary deposits may arise when oil flows extensively from oil leak. Secondary deposits are a combination of heavy degraded oil and sediment.

Solid hydrocarbon comes about with dissipation of crude oil at the earth’s surface where its composition progressively changes with the loss of lighter components. There are two types of solid hydrocarbons including waxy solid hydrocarbons and asphaltic solid hydrocarbons. Waxy solid hydrocarbons result from paraffinic crude oil insipissation. Generally, they are plastic substances with their colors ranging from dark brown to waxy yellow. Asphaltic solid hydrocarbons result from naphthenic crude oil insipissation. Both of these are composed of carbon, hydrogen, sulfur, oxygen, and nitrogen as well as inorganic compounds. Their only difference is in the molecular composition.

Tar sands

These are heavy, gluey oil deposits that occur near or at the surface of the earth and have API ranging from 5-15o. They generally occur in highly permeable sands. They undergo a gradational change from the typical crude oil, through heavy oil and to tar becoming heavier and incorporating higher amounts of inorganic impurities. They are more aromatic and sulfurous compared to the crude oils. They have less saturated hydrocarbons but more asphaltenes and resins.

In most cases, tar sands occur where the major basin cross over the Precambrian shields. They either occur in traps that are erosionally breached or migrate to surface seepages from the deep traps. Major deposits of tar sand may be found in Malagasy, Trinidad and Alberta. In extracting oil from the tar sands, subsurface extraction or surface mining approach may be used. After quarrying the tar sands, the constituent oil is extracted using steam or hot water to disaggregate the sand and separate the oil. In case the traditional open cast extraction is not possible due to a thick overburden, in situ extraction must be done either by dissolving oil through solvent injection or heating to reduce the viscosity of the oil.

Oil shales

These are small-grained sedimentary rocks that when heated yield oil. Unlike tar sands, their oil is contained in complex kerogen structures from where it is distilled. Oil shales contain organic components such as kerogens and bitumen as well as inorganic components like quartz, mica, feldspar, carbonates, accessory minerals, pyrite and clays. Oil shales come in two types with well known biological origin. These are Torbanite available from Scotland, and Tasmanite available from Tasmania in Australia as well as in North Alaska.

Oil is extracted from the shales through in-situ extraction method when underground or surface quarrying. Crushed shale is heated in a retort at 425 to 475o centigrade. Kerogen pyrolysis drives of the gas and oil while spent shale would collect the retort’s bottom.

Coal-bed methane and shale gas

Rarely would you have well-defined fields having gas in shales rather it comes in crooked fracture systems and siltstone bands. This gas has over 10% ethane, is commonly wet and has high calorific value. Coal-bed methane differs from shale gas in that it has lower calorific value thanks to the production of dry gas only by the coals. In most cases, coal beds are more permeable than the shales due to easier artificial or natural fracturing.