Noaa Vs Nasa On Budget

Noaa Vs Nasa On Budget

Noaa Vs Nasa On Budget

NOAA VS NASA

The national oceans and atmospheric administration is one of the most fundamental and active research organizations in America. This is because it is dealing with the one thing that no organism likes when it is hurt: the environment. Oceans are the places where animals live where the atmosphere is inclusive of the weather and the reactions of Mother Nature (Cameron, 2013). There is still more to be done especially with the current changes in the climate due to global warming. Not only are temperatures expected to increase but there will be differences in the climatic conditions and natural occurrences. This means that all the climatic data that has been collected since the 19th century is slowly being rendered useless.

Natural occurrences lead to increase in the deaths of people and loss of property with billions not to mention limiting the opportunities. The events include increase in hurricanes, tsunamis, tornadoes and wind directions and patterns. This means that more investment by the government because it is not a matter o if it is a matter of when. More money will aid in conducting better and more reliable pattern of occurrences. For instance people will be warned about earthquakes and tsunamis days before and not twenty minutes before it happens ( Eilperin, 2013). People will know how to be protecting themselves from the changes in the weather conditions and wind patterns.

Currently $20 billion has been invested in NASA for a project to make rockets to find space bodies. This is not a guaranteed project and there are even claims that even after sending all that money it may be fruitless, yet the government is willing to spend the money to try and satisfy curiosity instead of protection life on earth ( Achenbach, 2013). Most of the space trials are made in the water and even at times on land. If the government does not fund the organization that ensures the atmosphere is predictable enough for practice, then there will be nowhere for NASA to spend their money.

NOAA is the unsung hero and even from their slogan it is not heard of by many people. this is because most people think that it is obvious and given that before the government does anything else it ensures that the organization meant to take care of the environment is good to go.

References

Eilperin, Juliet, (January 22, 2013), NOAA’s proposed move raises questions about its role

Achenbach, Joel, (February 11, 2013), NASA’s science missions bring the universe into sharper focus even as agency struggles with manned flight

Cameron, James, (March 25 | Updated: Monday, March 26, 9:4 AM, 2013), Director James Cameron details 3 hours at Earth’s deepest spot, says it’s desolate, foreboding Associated Press

Posted in Uncategorized

Noodles & Company’s Operations Management

Noodles & Company’s Operations Management

Noodles & Company’s Operations Management

Name

Institution Affiliation

Noodles & Company’s Operations Management

Today, the business environment is constantly changing, with businesses also diverting focus on operations management. Operation management is the administration of resources and processes needed by a firm in the production of products and services (Barnes, 2018, p. 5). In the business world today, corporations are keen on operations management to achieve the highest level of efficiency achievable (Kenton, 2019). An excellent example of a business that relies mostly on operations management is the Noodles & Company. It attributes its success over the years to excellent operations management. The fast-food restaurant focuses on business operations and functions to ensure it achieves quality services and efficient service delivery to customers.

Noodles & Company

Noodle & Company is a fast food restaurant based in America, having its headquarters in Broomfield, Colorado. The firm currently serves 29 states across the US and also has its operations in Europe, Canada, India, Asia, and Africa. Since being founded in 1995, the company has dedicated a vast amount of resources and time to ensure that its operations management ensures that it serves quality fast-foods fast and efficiently (Noodles & Company, 2020). Such actions on focusing on operations management have enabled the business to achieve tremendous success, expanding its operations to new markets over the years. The restaurant’s operations management was developed by focusing on the restaurant’s competitive priorities.

Competitive Priorities

The operations management currently possessed by the restaurant was developed through the use of an operations strategy. The strategy leads to the specification of the needs of the restaurant’s strategy to its operations by focusing on the competitive priorities. According to Jitpaiboon et al. (2016), competitive priorities refer to the crucial dimensions that a firm’s operations ought to possess to satisfy customers. Competitive priorities can, therefore, be regarded as a guidance of the business’ operations, since the various aspects of the operations ought to focus on supporting the competitive priority (Reid & Sanders, 2019, p. 35). At Noodles & Company, there are various competitive priorities that its operations focus on, such as quality, delivery, and customer focus.

Noodles & Company’s Competitive Priorities

Foremost, the restaurant prioritizes on quality of fast foods it serves its customers. Quality is among the restaurant’s competitive priorities, and it gives directions to the restaurant’s operations (Collier & Evans, 2016, p. 54). Through having quality as a competitive priority, the restaurant achieves align its manufacturing and service processes to serve fresh quality hot dishes. The various operations from the counter to the kitchen to the dining area, are all aimed at ensuring the serving of hot quality fresh fast-foods. The restaurant was founded on the principle that the customers should not sacrifice quality when they require speed, leading to the next competitive priority of time.

The second competitive priority that the restaurant’s operations are aligned with is delivery or time. Noodles & Company was founded to deliver fast foods at a fast speed without compromising on the quality of the meals. Such actions demonstrate the employment of lean manufacturing which is aimed at the elimination of waste while adding value to consumers (Davim, 2018, p. 70). The waste resource being eliminated is time resource as meals are prepared fast. The restaurant aligns its operations from the counter to the kitchen and finally to the dining room to be efficient to ensure that customers receive their ordered hot fast-foods at approximately 6 minutes or less, eliminating wastage of time. The restaurant prioritizes the fast delivery of food to a customer since it creates better service delivery and also customer satisfaction. Therefore, through aligning the operations to be focused on fast delivery, the restaurant achieves to ensure customer satisfaction.

Another competitive priority of Noodles & Company is customer focus. The success of the company over the years is because of the operations being aligned with a customer focus. Customer focus is about the fulfilment of a customer’s needs and includes several services such as product support and customer information (Awwad et al., 2010). Noodles & Company have its operations management focused on customer focus. An excellent example of how the restaurant has aligned its operation to customer focus is in the lobby. From the moment a customer enters the restaurant, there are pictures to engage the customer to know their preferred food instead of thinking of the food they want. Such measures ensure the restaurant is focused on customers, which therefore contributes to the operations management effective.

Processes

Moreover, effective operations management is also concerned with effective manufacturing processes. In Noodles & Company, there are various processes adopted to ensure efficient production. The first process in the restaurant is the guest interaction which lasts about 30 seconds. The entrance of the restaurant has a menu that engages the customer to make them aware of the dish they desire. After knowing the dish a customer wants, they will go ahead to place the order. A card is given to customers which they place on their tables, waiting for their dish to be prepared. Once the order is placed, the dish is displayed on a monitor where the employees in the kitchen can then prepare the ordered dish quickly.

The second process is at the silver bowl station, which lasts about 15 to 30 seconds. Under the process, the employees pick the recipes required to prepare the ordered dish. The next processes are through the sauté line and lastly through the garnish station. The entire process is designed to ensure that the dishes are prepared within 5 to 6 minutes, ensuring that the customer is quickly served quality hot dishes. The figure below is a service blueprint of the restaurant’s processes.

3583305425154Preparations

00Preparations

3931277-68834701901633428300Orderr

00Orderr

1679944339769-38227063913Customer

0Customer

-8506032960948985163500Guest Interaction

Guest Interaction

462494141419731789134145371989130170962Silver Bowl Station

Silver Bowl Station

3435527170608Sauté Line

Sauté Line

4988147172971Garnish Station

Garnish Station

4816017259863Serving

00Serving

5560680216195

4065920150200Customer

0Customer

42212594349754936623193601Dining

Dining

Operations and Processes Design

Firstly, the restaurant has design its operations to be fast through the division of tasks. Right from the lobby to the kitchen, the staffs are divided, having various responsibilities to perform. Some employees are concerned with the ordering process, which is then reflected in the two monitors placed in the kitchen; on the sauté line and the garnish station. In the kitchen, staff are divided into the two stations. Such division of tasks enables the preparation of order dishes within four to five minutes. According to Khanna (2015), time as a competitive priority is concerned with on-time delivery which Noodles & Company is keen on. Therefore, through divisions of tasks, the restaurant enables on-time delivery of the dishes.

The other way through which the restaurant designs its operations and processes to achieve quality meals is on fresh produces. There is a prepped inventory which ensures that the restaurant achieves the use of fresh vegetables and produces. The prepped inventory is updated every mornings and evening, and thus facilitates the use of quality fresh produce that enables the serving of quality dishes. Consequently, the Noodles & Company can achieve its competitive priority of quality and customer focus.

Noodles & Company Fail-safe

Noodles & Company fail-safe its processes by having job aides at every station in the kitchen. Having the job aides at the stations as fail-safe ensures that the employees in the kitchen use the right tools for success. Fail-safes are processes or mechanism instituted in the operations to mitigate the occurrence of disasters (Lee, 2016). The right tools in the restaurant include the measurements of the ingredients, the amount of heat, and the recipes, ensuring the quality of dishes and service. Thus, through having job aides at every station in the kitchen as fail-safes mechanism facilitates the serving of quality dishes to customers, smoothening the entire process of meal preparations.

Customer Satisfaction

On the other hand, the fast-food restaurant achieves customer requirements aligning its operations towards customer satisfaction. Foremost, Noodles & Company can achieve the customer requirements by having all procedures and process aligned to meeting customer requirements. The other way that the restaurant achieves customer requirements and satisfaction is through the use of fresh vegetables and produce. Noodles & Company is focused on serving quality fresh dishes quickly through the use of fresh produce which it stocks in its freezers. The quick serving and preparations of dishes are facilitated by the way the ingredients are lined up in the kitchen and division of tasks, among others. Such actions are aimed at customer satisfaction.

Furthermore, Noodles & Company uses lean operations that facilitate greater customer satisfaction. Lean operations are the use of minimum resources to improve customer satisfaction (Modi, 2017, p. 245). The restaurant ensures that the customers wait only for approximately 6 minutes or less for quality dishes to be prepared and served hot. Such actions save time, therefore, increasing customer satisfaction.

Smooth Flows

Operations management is also concerned with service processes where it is essential to ensure the smooth flow of customers, goods, and information, which is vital to the restaurant’s success. According to Parker (2018), businesses today are developing service processes aimed at improving service delivery, and such service processes are evident in the restaurant’s smooth flow of customers, goods, and information. The restaurant first achieves smooth flow of customers through interactions such as menu which assists them to know what they would like to order. During ordering, a number card is given to them which they would place on the tables for identification. Additionally, after ordering, there are soft drinks displayed which customers can take as they wait to be served. The restaurant also ensures the smooth flow of goods through the first in first out (FIFO) rotation policy.

The other way that the operations support the smooth flow of information is through the use of monitors and card numbers given to customers after ordering. Employing technology in changing services processes is efficient in achieving improvements while supporting customer service. The monitors are placed in the kitchen to display the orders, facilitating a smooth flow of information. Smooth flow of both people, goods, and information are contributing factors to effective operations.

Noodles & Company Layout

The layout of the restaurant is designed to facilitate a smooth and effective flow of operations. The positioning of interactions, including the menu, at the entrances, facilitates the choice of the desired dishes by customers. Instead of guessing which meal to take, the interactions facilitate the choice of the dishes smoothening the operations. Additionally, the positioning of soft drinks at the ready-to-drink cooler enables customers to conveniently choose their desired drink to take as they wait for their dishes to be prepared.

On the other hand, the kitchen’s layout is also designed to support the restaurant’s operations. The lining of vegetables, noodles, and other ingredients facilitate the easier and fast picking of ingredients. The restaurant has a specific line up where the vegetables flow, noodles, and sauté dishes. Such specific positioning of ingredients is vital as it helps the restaurant’s employees to prepare the dishes within the 4 to 5 minutes. The layouts adopted by the restaurant facilitates the services of operations to be smooth and effective. According to Slack (2018), getting the process details correctly is beneficial as it leads to effective operations. Therefore, the layout is a contributing factor that enables the effective operations of the restaurant.

Inventory Management

Noodles & Company manages its inventory through regular prepping. Inventory management is essential as it targets the equilibrium among customer service and investment (Ivanov et al., 2017, p. 347). In the restaurant, prepping is commonly used in the walking cooler where fresh produce and vegetables are kept. The vegetables are regularly prepped to ensure the smooth flow of goods and ensuring the use of fresh produce. Prepping is usually done in the mornings, afternoons, and evenings. Such inventory management is essential as it ensures quality dishes is served to customers, contributing to effective operations management.

Staffing Arrangement

For adequate and fast preparation of dishes, the restaurant employs the use of division of tasks. Back in the kitchen, the employees are divided into various roles with some being in the sauté line and others in the garnish station. The staffing arrangement at the restaurant is based on capacity management, where the restaurant exploits its prospective activities, achieving better results (McVay et al., 2017). Therefore, the productive capacity management of employees through the division of tasks enables the restaurant to achieve higher success.

Conclusion and Recommendation

In Summary, the Noodles & Company achieves its competitive priorities of quality fast-foods timely and ensures customer focus through having its operations being aligned to the priorities. Such measures by the restaurant have seen it grow, reaching new markets while ensuring customer satisfaction. The restaurant’s processes from guest interaction to the garnish station are all designed to ensure fast serving of quality fresh dishes. Noodles & Company’s operations management is, however, effective and requires little or less improvement. The operations of the restaurant can be improved by focusing on the counter by adding more counters to ease the flow of the line when ordering. However, the operations at the restaurant are effective in ensuring fast quality serving of fast-foods.

References

Awwad, A., Al Khattab, A., & Anchor, J. R. (2010). Competitive priorities and competitive advantage in Jordanian manufacturing. Journal of Science and Management 6(1), DOI:10.4236/jssm.2013.61008.

Barnes, D. (2018). Operations management. Macmillan International Higher Education.

Collier, D. A., & Evans, J. R. (2016). OM. Cengage Learning.

Davim, J. P. (Ed.). (2018). Progress in lean manufacturing. Springer.

Ivanov, D., Tsipoulanidis, A., & Schönberger, J. (2017). Global supply chain and operations management. A Decision-Oriented Introduction to the Creation of Value.

Jitpaiboon, T., Gu, Q., & Truong, D. (2016). Evolution of competitive priorities towards performance improvement: a meta-analysis. International Journal of Production Research, 54(24), 7400-7420.

Kenton, W. (2019). Operations management. Retrieved on June 17, 2020, from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/operations-management.asp#:~:text=Operations%20management%20is%20the%20administration,the%20profit%20of%20an%20organization.

Khanna, R. B. (2015). Production and operations management. PHI Learning Pvt. Ltd..Lee, W. D. (2016). Fail-Safe 101: An introduction to failures in leadership and management. Spectrum Group.

McVay, G., Kennedy, F., & Fullerton, R. (2017). Accounting in the lean enterprise: providing simple, practical, and decision-relevant information. CRC Press.

Modi, A. A. (2017). Essentials of operations management. PHI Learning Pvt. Ltd..Noodles & Company. (2020). About Noodles & Company. Retrieved on June 17, 2020, from https://www.noodles.com/about-noodles/

Parker, D. W. (2018). Service operations management, second edition: The total experience. Edward Elgar Publishing.

Reid, R. D., & Sanders, N. R. (2019). Operations management: an integrated approach. John Wiley & Sons.

Slack, N. (2018). Essentials of operations management. Pearson UK.

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Non-truth Telling News

Non-truth Telling News

Non-truth Telling News

Name

Institution

Date

Non-truth Telling News

The Media today is under the influence of the affluent and powerful group in the society and they are charged with the responsibility of dictating how operations should be run and the kind of information to be disseminated to the people. The truth is defined has having three dimensions and the news is mostly one-dimensional depending with the sensitivity of the matter at hand. Some fields the news is vast and complex and in this case it makes it extremely difficult for the media house to communicate to the public what really happened. The one notable negative aspect of the present day media is the deterioration of professional media and the responsibility of journalism is not considered resulting in the dissemination of news where some information or truth is withheld CITATION Pro18 l 1033 (Probueka, 2018). The main purpose of media messages today is no longer passing of reliable knowledge and a deep reflection but the stimulation of the most preferred emotions especially from the specific target audience. The essay demonstrates how the media is manipulating individuals by not being truthful and the detrimental consequences of their very decisions. The discussion is supported by specific stories that demonstrate how manipulative and how the media may at times exempt some parts in a story.

CNN on Trump Allies Link to Russia

In 2016 during the presidential campaign, CNN were victims of reports that a close ally of president Trump Anthony Scramucci had meetings with people who were close to President Putin. What the article was implying was that during the campaign, Trump may have used his allies to try and get help on Russia in Running a campaign that would lead to him winning the election in his favor. Later on however, CNN had to pull down the post and wrote an apology. The news journalist who also had written the piece resigned voluntarily yet they were among a recently formed task force on the investigative team that would be in charge of the CNN investigations (Sampathkumar, 2017). The news article had already caused tension with people from the Left accusing people from the right of trying to sabotage the election. CNN stated that the article had been uploaded without it following the important steps that were necessary.

Pizzeria Theory

2016 was a period that was filled with false news and a lot of misinformation. Days just before the presidential election was to take place, people walk up to the news that leaders from the Democratic party were running a child trafficking ring and was being aided by two restaurant DC, Comet and Pizzagate. This was after Mr. John Podesta’s email who was Hillary Clintons chief campaign was hacked and according to news source there was a decoded message they were working with James Alefantis who was owner of Comet in child abuse (Kang, 2016). When the mews broke out high profile officials from Republican party helped in spreading of the propaganda including Presidents Trump son. This caused a lot of reaction that a gunman walked in to DC, Comet with a rifle and opened fire, luckily no one was injured. The case shows how unsubstantiated news report could cause harm in a couple of minutes. Mr. Alefantis who was a Democratic supporter and his 40 employees had become caught up in a storm of fake news that even some main media houses were running.

Washington Post and Whitehouse Claims on Iraq weapons

Washington Post in August 2004 admitted to underplaying skepticism when they were reporting on the White House statement on Iraq weapons of mass destruction. The White House pronouncement by Colin Powell stated that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction and most news sources did not do their research but instead created a post that seemed to favor the war. For the Washington Post, the White House pronouncement covered the front page as if the news were true only for the statements to be later found to be erroneous. The Post in its part took blame that it covered more news on why the war was needed as compared to those of the people who were against the war (Gary, 2004). Media has been known at times to favor what the government says especially if it involves information from the Middle East or Africa. Open they will run with what their government states instead of first doing a fact checking.

Martha Stewart plays a critical role as her thoughts on keeping and maintaining high standards can be appropriately borrowed by the press. The standards to which we hold Martha Stewart is not the same standards media is held to. When Martha Stewart was reported to have committed the crime all medias ran the story with panels in various newsroom discussing of her crime and what years she would likely to face. This is what celebrities go through, when it is purported that they have committed a crime all news sources will run the story on how guilty he is likely to be. However, for news sources, when mistakes are made, there are no headlines on these mistakes. What most do is that they offer an apology to the offended party and then pull down the post. This is despite the fact that they may have cause harm to the public by printing of information that was not truthful. The public do not seem to judge as harshly the news article that report the fake news as they do to celebrities such as Martha Stewart. In journalism however, the standards to be maintained in this case are the code of ethics that govern the journalism profession. The ethics include; accountability, truthfulness, honesty and excellence in performance of duties and responsibilities.

The line between falsehood and truth has been blur long enough and it has shaped the attitude of the society at large. The mass media has a responsibility to always give the right information to the general public. In this environment where the press is tactful and is in a symbiotic relationship with the government, the public has not failed to note that the press isn’t performing its duties as it should. The philosophies of Aristotle and Plato on the principle of virtue have been of great importance as they apply in the analysis of the performance of the press. The philosophers emphasized on the virtues of mind, character and sense of honesty. If the virtues are applied in the press, then there will be a definite satisfaction and manipulation of the general public will not be there and hence the press will perform its duties effectively satisfying the people that they serve.

References

Kang, C. (2016, November 22). Fake News Onslaught Targets Pizzeria as Nest of Child-Trafficking. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/technology/fact-check-this-pizzeria-is-not-a-child-trafficking-site.html

Sampathkumar M. (2017, June 26). CNN forced to delete false Trump-Russia story. Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/cnn-trump-russia-story-deleted-retraction-anthony-scaramucci-money-apology-a7809521.html

Younge, G. (2004, August 13). Washington Post apologizes for underplaying WMD skepticism. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/aug/13/pressandpublishing.usa#maincontent

References.

BIBLIOGRAPHY l 1033 Probueka, D. (2018). Truth and Lies in journalism: A dispute concerning the accurate presentation of information. Sciendo, 81-89.

Sutherland, A. (2012). News and The Whole Truth. The Atlantic.

Vanderwicken, P. (2015). Why the News is Not the Truth. Havard Business Review.

Zakhem, A. J. (2017). Honesty and Intergruty in Business. Springer, 1037-1046.

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Non-stationary Model

Non-stationary Model

Non– Stationary Model

Introduction

Corporations and financial institutions as well as researchers and individual investors often use financial time series data such as exchange rates, asset prices, inflation, GDP and other macroeconomic indicator in analysis of stock market, economic forecasts or studies of the data itself (Kitagawa, G., & Akaike, H, 1978). To apply data refining data is the key as it enables one to isolate the data points that are relevant to your stock reports. The data points have covariance, variances and mean that changes with time that is the data are non – stationary. Non – stationary behavior can be cycles, random walks, trends or the combination of the three. Non – stationary data are unpredictable and cannot be forecasted or modeled. The result achieved by using non – stationary time series may indicate relationship between two variables where one does not exist so they may be spurious. In order to receive reliable result and also consistent the non – stationary data need to be transformed into stationary data. In contrast to the non – stationary process that has a variable mean and a variance that does not remain near or returns to a long run mean over time, the stationary process reverts around a constant variance and has a constant long term mean independent of time.

A stationary time series has a constant variance, a constant mean and the variance is independent of time. Without stationery is important for standard econometric theory and is also crucial for one to obtain consistent estimators. Plotting the series against time is the quickest way of telling if a process is stationary. Chances are that the series is stationary if the graph crosses the mean of the sample many times. If the graph does not cross the mean is an indication of persistent trends away from the mean of the series. A variable whose it mean grows around a fixed trend is a trend stationary variable. This enables a classical way of describing an economical time series which grows at a constant rate. A trend series generally tends to evolve around a steady, up warding sloping curve that does not have big swings away from that curve. De trending the series give a stationary process.

The following types of non – stationary processes are the possible candidates:

The examples of non – stationary processes are random walk without a drift, random walk with a drift and deterministic trends.

Random walk without a drift or pure random walk (Y t = Yt-1 + ε t )

Random walk predicts that the value at a time “t” will be equal to the previous period value plus a stochastic component that is a white noise. Stochastic component is identically and independent distributed with mean “0” and variance “σ²”. Random walk can also be named as process or unit with stochastic trend or a process integrated of some order. The process can either move in a negative or positive direction from the mean hence it is a non-mean reverting process. Random walk goes to the infinity as the time goes to the infinity and also evolves over time; this make a random walk cannot be predicted. In a purely random process every element is independent of every other element and each element has an identical distribution.

Random walk with drift (Y t = α + Yt-1 + ε t )

The random walk with a drift predicts that the value at a time “t” will equal the last previous period’s value plus a drift or a constant and a white noise term. Random walk with a drift does not revert to a long run mean and has variance dependent on time. Stochastic process in this case area defined in terms of its behavior at time t where t is an integer value. Since t is a quantity that can be mapped to the integer then there is no problem but essential difference occurs if t is a continuous variable. One considers the value of the time series at a given time to be continuous random variable. Many times series mostly those from volcanology take other kind of values, for example the kinds of discrete events or count values such as those recording number of eruption.

Deterministic trend (Y t = α + βt + ε t  )

Deterministic trend predicts that the value at a time “t” will equal the last previous period’s value plus a drift or a constant and a white noise same as random walk with a drift. The value at time “t” in the case of a deterministic trend it is regressed on a time trend (βt) while in the case of a random walk is regressed on a time the last period’s value (Yt-1). Deterministic trend is a non – stationary process that has a mean that grows around a fixed trend, which is independent of time and constant.

Random walk with drift and deterministic trend (Y t = α + Yt-1 + βt + ε t )

Random walk with drift and deterministic trend is a non – stationary process that combines a random walk with a deterministic trend and a drift component. The process specifies the value a time “t” by the drift, a stochastic component, a trend and a last period value.

Trend and difference stationary

A random walk without or with a drift can be transformed to a stationary process by differencing (subtracting Yt-1 from Y t, taking the difference Y t – Yt-1) correspondingly to Y t – Yt-1 = ε t or Y t – Yt-1= α + ε t and then the process becomes difference-stationary. The process loses one observation each time the difference is taken and is the disadvantage of differencing stationary. A non – stationary process with a deterministic trend becomes stationary only after removing de trending or the trend. For example, deterministic trend is transformed into stationary process by subtracting the trend (Cowpertwait, P. S., & Metcalfe, A. V, 2009). When one transfers non – stationary to stationary through de trending no observation is lost. In the case of a random walk with a deterministic trend and a drift, de trending may remove both the drift and deterministic trend but the variance will go to the infinity. Due to this the differencing must also be applied to remove the stochastic trend.

Table 1 Differencing as shown in the table 1 there is difference between the curve of random walk with drift and the difference stationary. The advantage of the difference is that the method removes the trend in the variance, stochastic trend and also differencing is simple to use. The disadvantage is that differencing process losses one observation each time the difference is taken.

Table 2 de trending or removing the trend

After removing the trend, non – stationary process with deterministic trend becomes stationary the process is also known as de trending. The trend βt is subtracted from the non- stationary process α + βt + ε t to be transformed into a stationary process α + ε t. When removing trend to transform a non – stationary process to a stationary one no observation are lost. Removing trend can remove the drift and the deterministic trend, whereas the variance will continue to the infinity. For one to remove the stochastic trend the differencing must also be applied.

In financial model, using non – stationary time series data produces spurious and unreliable result and leads to poor forecasting and understanding. The problem to be solved is to transform the time series data so that it becomes stationary. Differencing is used to transform non – stationary process with a drift or a random walk without or with a drift to stationary process. If the time data being analyzed contain a deterministic trend, the spurious result is avoided by de trending. The non – stationary series may combine a deterministic and stochastic trend at the same time and to avoid obtaining misleading result both the de trending and differencing are applies. De trending removes the deterministic trend and the differencing removes the trend in the variance.

One should always check whether two variables are integrated the same way to obtain meaningful result. Stationary stochastic process is the one where given t1 , . . . ., t l the joint statistical distribution of Xt1, . . . . . . . , X tl is the same as the joint statistical distribution of Xt1+r, . . . . ., X tl + r for all l and r. this means that all moments of all degrees that is variances, expectation, third order and higher of the process anywhere are the same. This also means that the joint distribution of ( X t + r , X) is the same as the ( X t, X s ) and hence cannot depend on s or t but only on the distance between s and t that is s – t. This stationarity is too strict for everyday life a weaker of weaker stationarity or second order is usually used. Second order means that variance of stochastic process and mean do not depend on t.

Global non- stationarityThe random walk is example of a global non – stationarity. The parameter and process of global non-stationarity process are fixed some time ago generally infinity and then the process itself evolves whereas the rules of evolution does not change.

AR, MA and ARMA models

This segment considers some primary probability models that are extensively used for modeling a given time series.

Moving Average models.

Probably the next simplest model is that constructed by the simplest linear combinations of dawdled elements of a totally purely random process, {ǫ t} with Eǫt = 0. A moving mean process, {Xt}, of the order q is then defined as .

………………………………………………………………… equation 11.5

And the abbreviated notation is noted as MA (q). Normally, with a newly redefined procedure it is of interest to note that all its statistical properties. For an MA (q) process, the average is simple to compute, since all the expectation of a given sum is the sum of all the expectations):

……. equation 11.6

This is simply because E(ǫ r) = 0 for any and all values of r. A totally similar argument can be applied for the divergent calculation

……………………………………………………….. equation 11.7

Since var [(ǫ r ) = σ 2] for all values of t

The sample distribution of the autocorrelation can be calculated as [r (τ ) = c (τ ) / c (0)]. If, when one calculates the sample auto covariance, it chops off at a particular lag q, for example it is effectively and adequately zero for lags of [ q + 1 ] or higher, then one can contend the MA(q) model in above equation as the implicit in probability model.

The only most quantity that we should concern ourselves with is only the auto covariance. A cheapest way of seeing what the auto covariance is to take into assumption that the procedures is stationary and multiply in both sides of (figure 11.17) by Xt−τ and take expectations:

This equates to Qt is independent of [X t− τ] and hence [E(ǫ t X t− τ ) = E ǫ t E X t− τ = 0] since the totally purely random procedure here has zero average. Thus (equation11.35) turns into

The formula (equation11.3) is a simplest example of a well-known Yule-Walker equation, more complex versions can be used to obtain a formulae for the auto covariance of more universal AR (p) procedures.

There are several checks and try outs that one can easily make but the absolute comparison of the try outs auto covariance with source values, such as the model of auto covariance given in equation below, is a major first step in model identification.

Also, at this point one can question what one means by the term “effectively zero”. The try out auto covariance is an empirically and statistically computed from the random sample distribution at hand. If more informational data in the time series were to be collected, or another try out stretch used then the sample auto covariance would be greatly different (although for extremely long samples and stationary time series the probability of a huge difference should be much smaller). Hence, try out auto covariance (autocorrelations) are significant random quantities and hence is “effectively zero” render into a continuous statistical hypothesis tests on whether the true auto correlation is equivalent to zero or not.

Finally, while we are still on the subject of sample auto covariance we notice that at the extremes points of the range of τ

……………..equation 11.4

Which also a times happens to be this sample variance and

……… equation 11.5

The horizontally oriented dashed lines in the bottom plot of the above figure [Figure 11.1] are approximately 95% significance bands. Any function which is outside any of these bands (like the ones shown in the figure at specified lags 1 and 2) are viewed as very important, or at least worth further rumination. It is also interesting to realize that although [ρ (τ ) = 0 ] for [ τ > 2] the sample autocorrelations for all lags 10 to 14 inclusive all look quite huge: This is merely an demonstration of the point out that the sample ac f function is a totally random quantity and some extensive care and a large enough experience is required to prevent excessive reading into them.

Autoregressive models.

The other primary development from a totally pure random procedure is the autoregressive model, which, as its name suggests, models a procedure where future values somehow will depend on the recent epoch. Moreover, {X t} follows an AR(p) model which is qualified by

Where {ǫt} is a totally pure random procedure. For the sake of this discussion we shall adopt time-honored history and firstly put into consideration the most simplest AR model: AR(1). Here we simplify notation and define {Xt} by

Since we the ǫt are different and independent

Then with respect to other equations not necessarily indicated above allude that final quantity that we need to worry ourselves with is the only auto-covariance (Schneider, R., & Weil, W, 2008). The simplest way of seeing what the auto covariance actually is, is to assume that the whole process is totally stationary and multiply both sides of (equation 11.17) by [ X t – τ] and take expectations:

We have simulated in total two AR (1) processes each of 200 different observations. The first [ar1] processes is a realization insinuating that [α = 0.9] and the second,[ar 1neg] is an actualization where[ α = −0.9]. Plots of each subsequent actualization and their autocorrelation coefficients in the functions appear. The total exponential decay nature of the auto correlation of [ar1pos] is clear and one can easily note that [ρ (1) = α = 0.9] from the plot section. For [ar1neg] similar considerations do apply except that [ρ(τ )] has an extra [(−1) τ] factor which results in the oscillation

ARMA Models.

It is by a fact that both AR and MA models expresses different behaviors of stochastic interdependence. AR procedures encapsulate a Markov-like quality such that the future events depend on the past, whereas MA processes bring into combination of both elements of randomness from the past events using a non-static moving window. An evident step is to combine all both types of behavior into one ARMA (p, q) model which is found by purely simple concatenations. The procedure [X t] is ARMA(p, q) if

Fitting ARMA models.

By now, we have just identified the probability models implicit in ARMA processes and some other mathematical quantities that are related to them. Of course, once one has enough real data one would like to correctly know the answers to questions such as “Are all these models suitable for my data?”, “Can I accommodate all these models in my data?” “How do I fit these models?”, “Do the first model fit to the data well?”. These kind of questions lead directly to the Box-Jenkins procedure, see Box et al. (1994). Part of this procedure involves analyzing the sample autocorrelation coefficient functions (and are related the function is usually known as partial autocorrelation function) to settle on the order of any AR or MA terms. However, there are several other prospectors such as getting rid of deterministic courses, removing occupants, or/and checking residues. Actually, a full intervention is way beyond the length restrains of this article so we prefer referring the any interested reader to The Chatfield (2003) in the first and preceding instance.

Conclusion

Differencing transforms non – stationary process with a drift or a random walk without or with a drift to stationary process. If the time data being analyzed contain a deterministic trend, the spurious result is avoided by de trending. The non – stationary series may combine a deterministic and stochastic trend at the same time and to avoid obtaining misleading result both the de trending and differencing are applies. De trending removes the deterministic trend and the differencing removes the trend in the variance.

References

Kitagawa, G., & Akaike, H. (1978). A procedure for the modeling of non-stationary time series. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 30(1), 351-363.

Cowpertwait, P. S., & Metcalfe, A. V. (2009). Non-stationary Models. InIntroductory Time Series with R (pp. 137-157). Springer New York.

Schneider, R., & Weil, W. (2008). Non-stationary Models. Stochastic and Integral Geometry, 521-556.

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Normally, when we think of worlds, the planet Earth comes to mind

Normally, when we think of worlds, the planet Earth comes to mind

Normally, when we think of worlds, the planet Earth comes to mind. What we don’t often remember is that the word world can mean more than the Earth. Webster’s New World Dictionary states that the true definition of the word world is, “some part of the earth, or an individual experience, outlook..” Keeping that definition in mind, it is true to say that the boys in Lord of the Flies were in their own world, so to speak. And it is also true that every world has its problems. A contemporary psychiatrist wrote , “The problems of the world – and they are chronicled daily in headlines of violence and despair – essentially are the problems of individuals. If individuals can change, the course of the world can change. This is a hope worth sustaining.” This quote can apply both to the larger world of the Earth, and the smaller world of the island.

On the island, the boys had problems from the beginning. Both Ralph and Jack wanted to be chief and when the rest of the biguns and littluns voted for Ralph, it caused friction between Jack and Ralph. Ralph tried to deal with this problem by appointing Jack the leader of the hunters and keepers of the fire. He had hoped this would repair any damage that had been done to their short friendship. Ralph was doing his duty as the chief and tried to deal with their individual problems. However, this solution ended up doing more harm than good. The friction between Ralph and Jack flourished throughout the book.

Jack soon became obsessed with savagery and killing pigs. The only

thing he cared about was meat. And Jack does kill a pig; however killing that pig sacrificed the fire and the boys missed a rescue

opportunity because the fire went out. But Jack doesn’t seem to care.

“Jack, his face smeared with clays, reached the top first and hailed Ralph excitedly, with lifted spear.

‘Look! We’ve killed a pig-we stole up on them-we got in a circle-’

They seemed to share one wide ecstatic grin. Jack had too many things to tell Ralph at once. Instead he danced a step or two, then remembered his dignity and stood still, grinning.

Ralph spoke. ‘You let the fire go out.’

Jack checked, vaguely irritated by this irrelevance but too happy to let it worry him.

‘There was lashings of blood,’ said Jack, laughing and shuddering.

‘You should have seen it!’ Ralph spoke again, hoarsely.

He had not moved.

‘You let the fire go out.’”

Jack doesn’t care that he screwed up; all that really matters to him is that he killed a pig. Ralph is very upset that Jack let the fire go out because being rescued is his top priority. Having fun is Jack’s top priority, and his callousness towards things Ralph sees as important adds to the friction building up between the two boys.

As the book continues, more and more Jack tries to assert himself as the chief. He comes up with wild games that the boys can play after the kill. He became the leader in the forest, where it’s all dark and scary, and Ralph was the chief on the beach where there was order. Even here, it’s evident that Jack is the type of ruler who wants an absolute monarchy – he likes to give orders, not take them. Ralph is a more democratic leader who listens to other people and takes advice. Jack offers protection and direction; Ralph offers goals, steadiness. Even at the basic personality level, there is a wide difference between Ralph and Jack. And most importantly, Jack is very ambitious. Jack wants power and to be chief. All of these differences and anxieties come to head after Simon, Ralph, Jack and Roger try and slay the beast. Jack says:

“‘He’s not a hunter. He’d have never got us meat. He isn’t a prefect and we don’t know anything about him. He just gives orders and expects people to obey for nothing. All this talk-’

‘All this talk!’ shouted Ralph. ‘Talk, talk! Who wanted it? Who called the meeting?’

‘All right then,’ he said in deep tones of meaning, and menace, ‘all right. Who thinks Ralph oughtn’t to be chief?’

He look expectantly at the boys ranged around, whohad frozen. Under the palms there was deadly silence.

‘Hands up,’ said Jack strongly, ‘whoever wants Ralph not to be chief?’

The silence continued, breathless and heavy and full of shame…[Jack]licked his lips and turned his head at an angle so that his gaze avoided the embarrassment of linking with another’s eye.

‘How many think-’ His voice trailed off.

‘I’m not going to play any longer. Not with you. I’m not going to be a part of Ralph’s lot–’

He blundered out of the triangle towards the drop to the white sand.

‘Jack!!’

Jack turned and looked back at Ralph. For a moment he paused and then cried out, high-pitched, enraged.

‘–NO!’

It is at this moment that the group splits apart. Once they are not together and strong, chaos takes over. Jack becomes a tyrant, going more and more towards savagery, backing up his orders with physical abuse. Jack and his hunters kill two very good people and try to kill Ralph before all of this is stopped by the appearance of a naval officer. It is the problems that Jack causes that create the rift between the group of boys. Jack is the savage one, Jack is the problem maker. This whole book would have turned out differently had Jack thought about more than himself. If he had thought about the good of the group and what would benefit everyone, some of the problems would not have occurred.

Imagine if Jack had decided to accept Ralph as his chief for the good of the group. If he had taken it upon himself to be a good hunter and flame-keeper, the fire would have never gone out and the group would have been rescued. Piggy and Simon would still be living. The island would have been more than a dead rock. The psychologist said, “If individuals can change, the course of the world can change.” If Jack had changed, the outcome of the island group would have been

drastically altered.

I feel that the message in the book is that a society is never a sum of its parts. If there are savage people in a society, then the society will be savage. Maybe not outright, and maybe not right away, but the savageness is always lurking right beneath the surface. If a society was made up of all saints, it would be a purely good society where everything was beautiful (as Simon was) and nothing was vicious. If individuals would change, change their morals and their ethics, a society could become greater and stronger. However, if individuals refuse to change, society could degenerate into all violence and savagery, as it did in Lord of the Flies. If people are willing to change, the world (any world) will become stronger and “better”. And that is, indeed, a hope worth sustaining.

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Non Truth Telling News Sources

Non Truth Telling News Sources

Non Truth Telling News Sources

Name

Institution

Date

Non Truth Telling News Sources

Cases of news journals or article that do not seem to give complete information has been on the rise in the 21st century. Getting the right and accurate information out there is no longer a big deal as getting a news piece or article that will get more reading and clicks which translates to more money is far much important. The press has often been seen as a corrupt entity just as much as how the government is corrupt. News press accept bribes not a physical way but in a systematic sense. The news should often report the truth as they owe the public however we see that the government and the media are entwined in a circle of mythmaking and manipulation. Certain news articles are often written to propagate certain agendas or to pass a misleading information out there. This essay will look at three news stories that have non truth telling context.

CNN in 2017 reported a story that linked Antony Scaramucci to a Russian investment firm. The story reported that the Congress was investigating a Russian investment fund that had ties with Trump officials. According to the reporter, the information came from an anonymous single source. The story was not really wrong but it did lack enough facts for it to be published. The article reported that a meeting had taken place between Antony Scaramucci and Kirill Dmitriev (Farhi, 2017). This news led to resignation of three CNN journalist who were part of an investigative team that had been created in CNN to look into investigative stories that will be run by the news network. As news network it is important to get the facts right on a story before publishing especially if it involves hefty matters that are likely to get the attention of many. Many news sources know that any link between Trump and Russia is likely to get a huge reading thus there was need to get all the facts right before publishing the story. The fact that a reputable news network would publish a news article based on a single anonymous source without proof is quite saddening and goes against the ethics of journalism. Plato and Aristotle have often been seen as post-truth philosophers. Plato in terms of truth and governance he talks of how to set up a just society and one way of setting it up is having a divided view on what one should let people know. Plato in his argument believes that the kind of knowledge a society needs is the one that is necessary for their lives. In our case, the meeting by Antony Scaramucci and Kirill Dmitriev should probably have been more verified before being published.

In 2016 during the Presidential campaign, a term Pizzagate theory emerged. This was a fake story that had been created on Hillary Clinton Presidential campaign. According to the story, John Podesra who was Hillary Clinton campaign manager had his email hacked. There were speculations that he among other top Democratic officials ran a human trafficking ring. Although this information was not founded there were several mainstream medias that took up the story. According to them two restaurants Pizzagate and DC, Comet Ping Pong pizzeria were where the meetings were held. This story did quickly spread to all social media platforms and even top officials most from the Republican party were engaging in it. Alex Jones who was among those who helped spread the propaganda even in his radio show offered an apology (Rosenberg, 2017). With a lot of engagements, it was getting it quickly did spread although every single accusation was false. This false story caused a lot of damage to the two restaurants and while the news stories were running they were losing profits because were avoiding the place. There was also a shooting as a man walked into Comet Pizzeria with an assault rifle and fired shots because of the non-truth telling news that were being spread.

Mainstream medias have fallen victims of reporting half-baked news that seem to have little lies. Recently Fox news offered an apology on their fake news that was targeting Cal Poly. There was a news headline after they interviewed a conservative student on the plight of conservative that said “CAL POLY PLOTS TO REDUCE WHITE ENROLLMENT” (Sheeler, 2018). This was actually untrue as it was claiming that Cal Poly was using a race-based admission process v which was against Proposition 209 passed by Californian voters in 1996 that prohibited the public universities from using race to increase either the number of Latinos, African American or other underrepresented students. This caused a lot of anger that Fox eventually had to apologize for this mistake. When one got to read the article, the headline might have been misleading but the content gave a little bit of an understanding of what they were saying. With the lie on their headline, they were more likely to get the clicks and more people were likely to read the article as opposed to if they actually used the correct news headline.

When Martha Stewart was linked to the crime of Insider trading at Imclone. In 2001, she sold her shares of the company and just two days later the stock values dropped. By selling her shares before the value dropped she had saved $45,673. However, she was not the only one that had benefitted as the CEO had also sold his shares thus they were faced with the case of illegal insider trading. From Stewart’s case, prosecutors worked hard to try and prove that Steward had sold her shares from nonpublic information. According to Martha Stewart, individuals should never be ashamed of their achievements and achievements are only possible when the right standards are maintained. Stewart is remembered for being an over-achiever and emphasizing that standard should be kept high always. Therefore, for the right information to be communicated to the population, standards should be kept high. As a public figure most thought that she should not have committed the crime and should not have concealed information from the law enforcers. We are often too tough on celebrities and the standards we hold them are too high that we do not often want them associated with any wrong doing. If a celebrity name comes up in a crime people are likely to conclude he is guilty although he may be innocent. This standards are not the same as those we hold news sources.All over the world, there is stiff competition over the very limited resources available. in this overheated atmosphere many media firms may tend to compromise their standards as they try to get an audience and a share of the market. Standards can only be maintained if the organizations strive to develop concrete internal structures that respect good governance, transparency and editorial independence. On Standards in journalism are the values and chords that guide and safeguard the profession. Truthfulness is a standard that should be maintained by any medial house. Accuracy and independence should also be upheld at all cost. The acquisition and the dissemination of the news or information by the media house should be free from bias and fair in every means possible. Public accountability is a standard and a code of ethic that should be respected and should guide any media house or newsroom activities. Professionalism, reliability, and public accountability of any media organization stand out as the three main ethical standards. When the standards are implemented and consistently maintained, the organization will be recognized and will have a strong reputation hence influencing the position of the firm with the public and in the journalism industry.

References

Farhi, P. (2017, June 27). CNN’s Russia story debacle came at the worst possible time for the network. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/cnns-russia-story-debacle-came-at-the-worst-possible-time-for-the-network/2017/06/27/8eb23616-5b3d-11e7-a9f6-7c3296387341_story.htmlRosenberg, E. (2017, March 25). Alex Jones Apologizes for Promoting ‘Pizzagate’ Hoax. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/25/business/alex-jones-pizzagate-apology-comet-ping-pong.html

Sheeler, A. (2018, July 13). Fox News falsely reported that Cal Poly is plotting to cut white enrollment. Retrieved from https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/education/article214844625.html

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Non traditional petroleum resources

Non traditional petroleum resources

Non traditional petroleum resources

Traditionally, petroleum geologist has been concerned with the exploration of natural gas and crude oil as the sole source of energy. However, other non traditional petroleum resources hold large amounts of energy and include coal-bed methane, shale gas, oil shales, gas hydrates and tar sands. Their extraction has been difficult mainly since the cost involved in production petroleum from the traditional sources is low therefore inhabiting technological research on their extraction. With the increase in the production cost of the traditional petroleum resources, focus has shifted to development of production methods for the non traditional methods.

Solid and plastic hydrocarbons

These are mostly found as in sedimentary rocks of varied ages. They are mostly viscous but their viscosity would decrease as temperature increases. The hydrocarbons come as pools or lakes on the surface of the earth and distributed in pores and veins on the subsurface. They may occur as secondary deposits or inspissated deposits. Inspissated deposits refer to heavy hydrocarbons which are devoid of the light fraction. This happens where a combination of erosion, uplift and migration brings liquid oil accumulation to the earth’s surface. Secondary deposits may arise when oil flows extensively from oil leak. Secondary deposits are a combination of heavy degraded oil and sediment.

Solid hydrocarbon comes about with dissipation of crude oil at the earth’s surface where its composition progressively changes with the loss of lighter components. There are two types of solid hydrocarbons including waxy solid hydrocarbons and asphaltic solid hydrocarbons. Waxy solid hydrocarbons result from paraffinic crude oil insipissation. Generally, they are plastic substances with their colors ranging from dark brown to waxy yellow. Asphaltic solid hydrocarbons result from naphthenic crude oil insipissation. Both of these are composed of carbon, hydrogen, sulfur, oxygen, and nitrogen as well as inorganic compounds. Their only difference is in the molecular composition.

Tar sands

These are heavy, gluey oil deposits that occur near or at the surface of the earth and have API ranging from 5-15o. They generally occur in highly permeable sands. They undergo a gradational change from the typical crude oil, through heavy oil and to tar becoming heavier and incorporating higher amounts of inorganic impurities. They are more aromatic and sulfurous compared to the crude oils. They have less saturated hydrocarbons but more asphaltenes and resins.

In most cases, tar sands occur where the major basin cross over the Precambrian shields. They either occur in traps that are erosionally breached or migrate to surface seepages from the deep traps. Major deposits of tar sand may be found in Malagasy, Trinidad and Alberta. In extracting oil from the tar sands, subsurface extraction or surface mining approach may be used. After quarrying the tar sands, the constituent oil is extracted using steam or hot water to disaggregate the sand and separate the oil. In case the traditional open cast extraction is not possible due to a thick overburden, in situ extraction must be done either by dissolving oil through solvent injection or heating to reduce the viscosity of the oil.

Oil shales

These are small-grained sedimentary rocks that when heated yield oil. Unlike tar sands, their oil is contained in complex kerogen structures from where it is distilled. Oil shales contain organic components such as kerogens and bitumen as well as inorganic components like quartz, mica, feldspar, carbonates, accessory minerals, pyrite and clays. Oil shales come in two types with well known biological origin. These are Torbanite available from Scotland, and Tasmanite available from Tasmania in Australia as well as in North Alaska.

Oil is extracted from the shales through in-situ extraction method when underground or surface quarrying. Crushed shale is heated in a retort at 425 to 475o centigrade. Kerogen pyrolysis drives of the gas and oil while spent shale would collect the retort’s bottom.

Coal-bed methane and shale gas

Rarely would you have well-defined fields having gas in shales rather it comes in crooked fracture systems and siltstone bands. This gas has over 10% ethane, is commonly wet and has high calorific value. Coal-bed methane differs from shale gas in that it has lower calorific value thanks to the production of dry gas only by the coals. In most cases, coal beds are more permeable than the shales due to easier artificial or natural fracturing.

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Deductive Memo

Deductive Memo

Deductive Memo

Author’s Name

Institutional Affiliation

Deductive Memo

To: Charles Duane Baker, Massachusetts Governor

From: Kinn Elliot, Legislative Strategist for the Vapor Technology Association (VTA)

Date: November 22, 2019.

Re: Lifting the Temporary Vaping Ban

Greetings

This memo is created to summarize the facts that guide the recommendations of Vapor Technology Association to the Massachusetts Governor’s office regarding lifting the four-month ban the Governor instituted on September 24, 2019, on responsibly manufactured vaping products. The fundamental conviction is that these recommendations are consistent with circumventing many legal battles surrounding the ban.

The Governor’s declaration of public health emergency towards combating the epidemic of vaping-related lung injuries and the subsequent Governor’s temporary ban on vaping in Massachusetts are hereby acknowledged with the utmost respect. However, following critical evaluation and in-depth reevaluation of the current situation, we at Vapor Technology Association feel that the ban could only be a partial win for the Governor as it will only prompt more needless legal battles. Our critical analysis culminated in the identification of several facts and factors that will only plague and exacerbate the political and legal atmosphere in Massachusetts.

The first and foremost fact is that the temporary ban is controversial and precarious because it is biased in the way in which nicotine-vaping products are categorized. While we acknowledge FDA’S warning against the use of tetrahydrocannabinol-containing products, we also observe that the agency strongly emphasizes that the vaping products that pose dangers to public health are the tetrahydrocannabinol-containing products purchased on the streets because they are irresponsibility manufactured and unregulated (Hernandez, 2019; O’Connor, 2012). So, when launching this crackdown, responsibly manufactured commercial vaping products that contain only nicotine and not tetrahydrocannabinol should have been exempted as they adhere to the standards provided regarding regulating the amount of nicotine. By failing to acknowledge the existence of responsible and standards-driven manufacturers of nicotine-flavored vaping products, this ban is simply an executive overreach that will drag the Governor into more legal battles without a doubt.

The second fact is that the ban will not be a long-term solution to the vaping crisis because it is flawed. One of its flaws, identified by Judge Donald Wilkins, is the failure to address whether the public health emergency exists only for adult users of vaping products or for both adult and young users. Critically, the ban is based chiefly on the epidemic of lung injuries among young users of nicotine-vaping products (Garrison, 2019; Raymond, 2019). Indeed, this fault was the basis upon which Judge Wilkins recommended the resubmission of the order covering nicotine products as an emergency directive. Another flaw of this ban is that it does serve the interests of the public per se. This is because it will stimulate many ex-smokers of tobacco who had switched to e-cigarettes to return to heavy smoking of cigars, a fact that Siegel, a Boston University professor of community health sciences, confirms (Garrison, 2019). By creating circumstances that force ex-smokers to return to their smoking behaviors, this ban will trigger more public health concerns, thereby culminating in many potential lawsuits.

The third fact is that this ban is a dreadful recipe for legal battles because it will facilitate the creation of new black markets that sell unregulated and subpar vaping products in Massachusetts. We are wary that when responsibly manufactured flavored vaping products are completely swept out, nicotine users will not just quit. Siegel corroborates our concern by maintaining that the Governor’s ban will stimulate the formation of black markets that sell unregulated vaping products (Garrison, 2019). For this reason, some nicotine users and ex-smokers will turn to cigarette smoking while a significant majority will resort to seeking unregulated vaping-product black markets. They will do so to continue sourcing flavored e-cigars, which are a preference for many adults and youths as Satel (2019) submits. What this means is that the political move of banning responsibly manufactured vaping products will only brace the use of dubious and bootleg vaping products, leading to unprecedented legal problems. It is worth recalling that black markets do not only exacerbate the challenges of legal product regulation but also complicate policy-centered efforts to combat crises (Maloney & Hernandez, 2019).

Based on these three facts, it is evidence that the ban will more likely exacerbate the vaping crisis than mitigate it. Eventually, the exacerbation of the crisis will yield more lawsuits and legal battles than legitimate solutions. Therefore, our recommendation and appeal to the Massachusetts Governor are that he changes his mind and lift this ban towards avoiding such further legal battles. The Governor needs to know that the relative safety of e-cigarettes has been documented across other states in the United States. He also needs to appreciate the research-based confirmation that responsibly produced vaping products have played an irrefutable role in lessening the adult smoking rate to 14%, along with curtailing the youth smoking prevalence (Prochaska & Benowitz, 2019; Rhoades et al., 2019; Satel, 2019). While the ethos of banning vaping is the relative risk involved, research outcomes confirm the benefits of smoking harm reduction through vaping. So, the Governor is entreated to lift this ban and look for better alternatives to dealing with the epidemic of vaping-related lung injuries because targeting responsible producers of regulated vaping products will only stimulate needless legal battles.

Respectfully

Kinn Elliot.

References

O’Connor, R. J. (2012). Non-cigarette tobacco products: what have we learnt and where are we headed?. Tobacco control, 21(2), 181-190.

Prochaska, J. J., & Benowitz, N. L. (2019). Current advances in research in treatment and recovery: Nicotine addiction. Science advances, 5(10), eaay9763.

Rhoades, D. A., Comiford, A. L., Dvorak, J. D., Ding, K., Hopkins, M., Spicer, P., … & Doescher, M. P. (2019). Vaping patterns, nicotine dependence and reasons for vaping among American Indian dual users of cigarettes and electronic cigarettes. BMC public health, 19(1), 1211.

Hernandez, S. (October 04, 2019). The US Government Is Now Warning People Not To Use Any Vaping Products With THC. Buzz Feed News. Retrieved November 22, 2019, from https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/no-vaping-thc-warning-fda.

Maloney, J., & Hernandez, D. (October 06, 2019). Vaping’s black market complicates efforts to combat crises. The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved November 22, 2019, from https://www.wsj.com/articles/vapings-black-market-complicates-efforts-to-combat-crises-11570354204.

Raymond, N. (October 21, 2019). Massachusetts vaping sales ban can stand but needs fixes: Judge. Thompson Reuters. Retrieved November 22, 2019, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-vaping-massachusetts/massachusetts-vaping-sales-ban-can-stand-but-needs-fixes-judge-idUSKBN1X01SL.

Garrison, J. (October 21, 2019). Massachusetts vaping ban can stand for now, but state must fix flaws in a week, judge says. USA Today. Gannett Satellite Information Network, LLC. Retrieved November 22, 2019, from https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/10/21/judge-rules-massachusetts-vaping-ban-can-stand-if-issues-addressed/4051203002/.

Satel, S. (October 23, 2019). The vaping overreaction. The Atlantic. Retrieved November 22, 2019, from https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/10/danger-vaping-bans/600451/.

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Definition of globalization and aspects of globalization

Definition of globalization and aspects of globalization

Definition of globalization and aspects of globalization

There are a lot of definitions that have been ascribed to globalization. These definitions have a common base; that is the connectivity among different nations. The word globalization is coined from the word global that implies world over. Thus globalization is the interaction and the integration of people, governments, companies through increased accessibility and availability of a fast communication channel, transport network, internet connectivity and technology.

Globalization covers a wide range of aspects which are key to the human populace. They are the economy, politics and culture. There are several factors that drive the aspect of globalization and these are the technological, economic, political, socio-cultural and biological factors. However, trade and communication have impacted largely to globalization.

The economic factor has brought a lot of change in the world. There is no country that has no close relations to another in terms of commerce. This factor has been with us for a very long time. Trade has existed among neighboring countries. However, this trade was slow due to lack of a fast means of transport and slow communication channels.

In the past goods were being ferried by ships and large boats along water bodies. Commerce was going on but it belonged majorly between governments and big companies. In the same regard, trade has continued to unite more and more countries together as countries try to raise the standards of living amongst its citizens.

Globalization has also been propelled by the fact that there have been new inventions on quicker means of transportation. Not only do goods take a short time to reach their destination but also human beings now can travel across the world with so much ease. Businessmen as well as tourists can now enjoy the privilege of moving into other countries as conveniently as they can.

Travel across the world has been made very easy and this has caused a lot of interaction between cultures. This cultural interaction has led to globalization. People are now able to relocate and go to live in other places. There is now no place that has its culture intact without any influence from another one.

I believe that the technological factor is the one that has revolutionized the world. Over the past few decades, there have been a lot of advances in the technological sector. These great advances have made it possible for the world to become smaller. By this I mean that the world can now be connected faster and easier. Communication via satellite has been improved. Now one can talk to another person who is on the other side of the world simply by dialing a few numbers on the telephone.

Apart from that, there is the internet revolution which has transformed the entire world. Now by the click of a button, one can communicate with another person, who is very far away from him, via the World Wide Web. This translates to mean that it is not only salutations that can occur via the internet but also commerce.

Nowadays, transactions are being carried out through the internet on a computer. One need not travel to the market. What a person needs to do is to buy goods online. The same applies to the payment; due to technological advances, one can make payments online without any fear. The money will get to the seller and the goods will be delivered to the buyer in a specified amount of time.

This was not the case a few years ago, so the advancements in the communication and technological sectors have played a vital role in globalization. The world has been interconnected in such a way that we now refer to the world as a global village.

Islamic fundamentalism and globalization

Now this brings us closer to the topic at hand. ‘Does the rise of religious fundamentalism have anything to do with the globalization?’ I strongly believe that the Islamic fundamentalism has been propagated by globalization. Since communication has been made easier, this has been to the advantage of this group of Muslims to spread their ideologies more conveniently.

Economy

Muslim nations are rich in crude oil, therefore they have the ability to trade with this very important commodity. As a result some the nations have strong economies and can be able to do a lot with the money that they have obtained. As a result, the rulers of these nations have used the countries wealth to proliferate the Islamic fundamentalism.

The idea behind the Islamic fundamentalism is that the West has eroded and undermined the Muslim religion. These Muslims feel that they have been betrayed by westernization, more so by Americanization. Consequently, they are resisting anything that the West is doing. From their dress code to the way they conduct their salutations. They consider these as polluting the Islamic culture.

Education

Muslims who are bent on spreading the Islamic fundamentalism have gone ahead to work together with other governments to ensure that this is achieved. For example the Iranian government has gone ahead to prohibit university lecturers from teaching tolerance with the west. Any lecturer found tolerating the ways of the West is sacked. The students are taught to believe that there can be no dialogue between them and the Americans.

I believe that globalization has made it possible for the follow up of the Islamic fundamentalism. These Muslims have made sure that they can monitor everything that is happening in their environment. This has been made possible by the fact that technology has been enhanced and now communication can be made very fast and action taken promptly.

I am sure that with globalization, a country like Iran can quickly influence other countries to take the same stand as it has towards the intolerance of the West. Academicians in Iran can connect with other lecturers from other countries and make sure that no case is found in which a lecturer is teaching the students on tolerating the ways of the western world.

Sharia law

Globalization has indeed spread religious fundamentalism. Since it is not difficult to know what is happening in another are, there has been the desire to follow up in the activities that are happening there. Muslims live together and are very supportive of each other, therefore, when an issue arises there is the urge in them to be united. One thing that the Islamic fundamentalism is advocating for is the wholesome use of the Sharia law. Muslims believe that this law is divine and that the whole world should be controlled by it.

The Sharia law has brought a lot of fighting between the Muslims and the Christians on which is should be universal. As a result many people have died in the pursuit of this belief. Globalization has made the Islamic fundamentalism to gain popularity because of the connection that countries have. Also, information now can be accessed easily making it possible for a large number of Muslims to be influenced by this ideology.

Social ties

As I had stated earlier, Muslims are very cooperative. They are united and they support each other. Consequently, they trust each other very much and are willing to do anything that they are told without questioning. As long as they have been told to do something by their religious leaders, they do not question.

In the process of globalization, the Islamic fundamentalism has been spread even further. There was a time when a European cartoonist had allegedly drawn a cartoon of a Muslim in a way that Muslims thought it was offensive to their religion. This activity sparked a lot of chaos in the whole world. It was by the help of technology and the interaction of people from everywhere in the globe that such a demonstration was orchestrated.

In this situation we clearly see how the Muslims can be brought together in a very short time to protest what they believe and they have been told is an insult to their religion. Were in not for the internet and other technological devices, such a scenario would not have occurred. This is why I am saying that the process of Islamic fundamentalism has been propelled by the realization of globalization.

Technology

Globalization has been attributed to advances in technology. This technology has been brought by education. In this case, the education which the Muslim children are receiving has been modeled to be in accordance to their own beliefs. That is why they can be able to be united the way they are. Their religious classes have been made easier due to globalization in such a way that the syllabus can be in sync everywhere.

Another thing that the Islamic fundamentalism is advocating for is the establishment of the Sharia courts everywhere. As it is now these courts can only be found in specific areas but since people are now living everywhere, Muslims are now pushing for the creation of these courts countrywide. For example, in Kenya the Sharia courts are only allowed on an eight mile strip off the coastline. However, there was a lot of debate if that clause should or should not be revoked in their new constitution that was promulgated last year.

The Islamic fundamentalism has got everything to do with globalization. Islamic celebrations such as Ramadan are now coordinated across the world with the new communication gadgets. The new moon has to be sited before the celebrations begin. In that case, communication can be made from wherever the new moon was sited and as a result, the whole Muslim faithful indulge in the ceremony that follows the break of their long fasting.

Such occasions and many other have been coordinated globally. This clearly depicts the level of globalization. This is a very sophisticated way to keep in touch with the rest of the world. The way Muslims follow their Islamic religion has made them embrace globalization in order to ensure that their activities are all done at the same time without major delays or hitches.

In the same light, there is the major Islamic pilgrimage in which Muslims go to worship in Mecca. This is one of the most important things that a Muslim can do in his lifetime. The Islamic fundamentalists do strongly advise the Muslim faithful to take part in this pilgrimage. This function strengthens their faith and binds them together.

With this regard, Muslims are able to coordinate their travel arrangements with their family members who are in different parts of the world. It is now possible for Muslims who are in the developing countries to attend this pilgrimage. Before, it was difficult to travel to Mecca due to transport problems. It was only the ones who were near who could manage to travel by road. In fact, going to Mecca was preserve of the affluent. However, with globalization and commerce and technology, more people have been able to save up for that trip. Money obtained from international trade is used to fund this trip. Again, technological advances like the availability of airplanes have made it possible for the Muslim faithfuls to attend this important occasion.

It is not in doubt that globalization has helped the spread of Islamic fundamentalism. In addition, the international connection that has been made so far can facilitate the transfer of money from one country to another. With this rapid transfer of money a lot of things can be done. If there is a project that needs funding then donors can send money with ease. The Muslims who have this Islamic ideology have benefited from this fact. If they want to build a mosque in order for them to continue teaching their ideology, then it easy for them to obtain funds for the development of the new mosque. These possibilities have been enabled by the new things that globalization has introduced in the world. Otherwise, if globalization would not have brought in these developments, then the Muslims would find it very difficult to advance in their ideology of Islamic fundamentalism.

We are all aware of the controversy surrounding the building of an Islamic center near Ground Zero. The land near the September eleventh catastrophe was acquired by a Muslim faithful. He wanted to build among other things a mosque. Americans, who are not Muslims, were against that move. They felt that the disaster victims needed to be respected. Building of a mosque near the Ground Zero would be disrespectful to the victims owing to the fact that the attack was done by Muslims.

As a mode of protesting this accusation, Muslims came out in large numbers to condemn the objection of building a mosque there. They were very supportive of the imam who had this project in mind. From all over the world there were supporters who voiced their concerns about that controversy. I am certain that the Islamic fundamentalists rallied support for the construction of this center. That is why the whole Muslim world came out in support of one of their own. Muslims became defensive claiming that they have the right to worship and that the denial of their right would be against the constitution.

Islamic fundamentalists allude that there are a lot of shortcomings in the theories and trends of thought of the West. These Muslims differ from the Western scientists who claim that life is inherent in nature of matter. They therefore claim that God gives life to dead substances. HYPERLINK “http://www.muslimphilosophy.com/ip/rep/H007″http://www.muslimphilosophy.com/ip/rep/H007 This difference in the school of thought between these two groups has generated a lot of debate among scholars. Globalization has made it possible for these Muslim scholars to research and work on this claim. It has been easier for them to consult with each on their findings and thus made concrete their claim that life is given by God.

Muslims believe in the story of creation as it is written in the Quran. Therefore anyone who does not have the same belief as them is not entertained. Muslims believe the Quran is the most reliable law and they can defend it with all that they have.

“According to the prophet and Muslims throughout the centuries, Islam is the best economic, social, religious, legal and political system on earth,” Jabbour, N, T VOL 11:2 APRIL 1994 A study in Egypt show that the this is not the case. Muslims are not as rich as they should be. Generally, Muslims are not where they are supposed to be in the aspects just mentioned.

According to Jabbour, the Islamic fundamentalists blame corruption, hypocrisy and lack of dedication for causing this ‘catastrophe’. They are now trying to educate the younger generations so that they do not get these vices. These vices are taking the Muslim people backwards and are hindering them from achieving their ‘divine’ goal. Here we see that globalization is now being used as means of educating the younger generations.

Not only is Egypt providing this special education to its children but also other nations that share the same feelings. These nations connect with each other in providing the suitable education for the Muslim children. Some of these lessons are conducted online. These lessons may be posted on the web and thus they can be accessed globally. Another way in which globalization has facilitated the growth of this religious fundamentalism is by teleconferencing. The Islamic fundamentalists may use these means of communication to reach an audience that is at a distant location.

The Islamic fundamentalism is a movement that attracts the lower middle class and students; this is according to Jabbour’s findings in Egypt. What this means is that this ideology is for those who have despaired in life and feel that the world does not recognize and value them. Consequently, the fundamentalists thrive on these feelings. They indoctrinate these groups of people into believing that they have been denied the chance to be great. As a result the movement spreads to many people.

Globalization has indeed fuelled the progress of this ideology in this manner: the Muslim world has a lot of poor people. If the fundamentalists tell them that the West has denied them equal chances to develop, they will definitely believe. By so doing they will be accepting to be indoctrinated by these fundamentalists. Since the world has become a global village due to globalization, these disillusioned people can clearly see the suffering of their fellow Muslim brothers and sisters. As a result, they will confirm what the fundamentalists are saying to be true.

The realization of globalization has definitely impacted the world in a negative way. As much as it has brought many good things, there is no doubt that some groups of people have misused the goodness of this great thing called globalization. It is obvious that globalization has improved the quality of lives of many people, there is also the side of negatively it has impacted on the same people. We can definitely find fault in globalization.

I cannot say that the rise of religious fundamentalism has nothing to do with globalization. In fact it is this globalization that has fuelled most of these religious movements. Though the ideology is mostly taught to people of a certain area, the availability of connection between people has largely fuelled the spread of Islamic fundamentalism.

As I have just discussed herein, the things that these Islamic fundamentalists are doing are not right. Furthermore, they are not even sane. It is the extremists who are leading this Islamic fundamentalism movement. These extremists are the ones who are coming up with crazy ideas and filling them in the minds of people. These extremists are the ones who are going to the extent of killing innocent lives in the name of protecting their religion.

‘Islam means a religion of peace through submission to God.’ Sahib Mustaqim Bleher. It is ironic how such a ‘peaceful’ religion can cause a lot of harm to people. The Islamic extremists have on many occasions been involved in suicide bombings. These attacks have been targeted towards Christians. It is very unfortunate how these Muslims would take away the lives of fellow human beings and still expect the whole world to follow their Sharia law.

The rise of Islamic fundamentalism has been propagated by globalization in this among other ways. For the attacks to be implemented there must be someone who orchestrated them. These masterminds definitely know what is happening in the whole world at one particular time. These are some of the negative effects of globalization. Information can be used in order to cause harm. For example, the bomb attacks at hotels in Kenya and Tanzania were meant to kill Israelis who were staying there. This is because Israel supports the U.S. in some of the decisions which she takes.

What I am trying to show here is the fact that globalization has been used by these extremists to do harm to people. If a person can put on an explosive vest and goes to bomb a bus or a building in the name of eliminating pagans, then that is the highest disregard for human lives. It is very sad that such occurrences should be witnessed in the world.

In my view, I suggest that these religious fundamentalist movements should be checked and controlled. The whole population should be taught on what is right. There should be no pointing fingers and blaming other nations for your own misfortunes. It would be in order to reconcile your differences and find the best ways in which countries can help each other. By so doing the world will be peaceful.

In addition, countries that are privileged to have more wealth than others should not take advantage of the poor nations. They should strike deals which are equal or better still which benefit the poor nations more. After all this is said and done, globalization will have done a good thing to the whole world. Otherwise, if this is not taken into consideration, then globalization will continue being inappropriately used to propagate Islamic fundamentalism.

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Deductive validity according to Lewis Carroll

Deductive validity according to Lewis Carroll

Deductive validity according to Lewis Carroll

Question (a)

Deductive validity refers to the fact that the premises provided upon which conclusions are being made are strong and can only lead towards one conclusion, if the premises are taken to be true. In fact, the solidity of a deductive argument significantly depends on the validity of the premises, if the premises are not valid, most likely the conclusion made from the premise is not valid as well. Key to constructing a deductively valid argument is the ability to include universal syllogism, predicate instantiation, as well as an affirmation of the antecedent. Euclid’s argument does meet the three conditions described above. The assertion that what equal the same are equal serves to establish universal syllogism, the second premise leads to predicate instantiation, as it equates the two sides of as triangle to the “same”, before reaffirming the antecedent, which is done by restating the initial premise, and relating it to the fact that the two sides are both equal to the same, essentially making them equal. Euclid’s statement is therefore deductively valid as it meets the necessary conditions, with acceptance of the two premises as true the only requirement for the conclusion to be accepted. It would not be logical to accept the first two statements as true and reject the conclusion.

Question (b)

The tortoise is unwilling to accept the conclusion because it does not fully believe in the two premises provided by Euclid’s assertion. In fact, it is perhaps plausible to claim that the tortoise does not believe in the logical truth of Euclid’s premises, which essentially means that he does not operate within the logical constants that the two premises provide. This further means that the tortoise is therefore, in a position to create other possible conclusions that are not within the logical constants provided by the two premise statements. In essence, the tortoise is not operating within the boundaries of logic, as he admits that he is willing to accept the assertions and aspersions made by the two premises but not the conclusion. As as such, it is possible to argue that the tortoise is not willing to accept not just the conclusions provided by Euclid, but also the use of logical argument. By not being bound by a need to abide by logical thought, the tortoise is not likely to agree with the logical constants applied in the argument, as well as the logical consequences normally necessary for a conclusion to be made in cases of logical arguments.

Question (c)

Lewis Carroll attempts to highlight the futility of attempting to engage in a logical argument with an entity that does not believe in operating with the logical constants usually applied in logical argument. The manner with which the tortoise continually convinces Achilles to keep on writing new premises with each attempt to convince him is proof of the fact that the tortoise was not really willing to engage in logical argument, specifically to recognize the concept of logical consequences. Furthermore, at the initial stage when the tortoise tells Achilles at the beginning of their argument, that he shall need all the leaves of the notebook, which at the beginning is almost empty. This is clear proof that the mind of the tortoise is essentially made up, and there is nothing really that Achilles can do, to convince the tortoise of the fact that by accepting the two premises, he is already reaffirming belief in the logical argument put forth by Euclid. The fact that even after reaching 1001 attempts, the tortoise still sees them proceeding with no change in opinion, is perhaps the clearest display of a lack of faith and belief in the mantra of logical argument.

Question (d)

The story of Achilles and the Tortoise casts doubt on the rational acceptability of deductive logic, because the tortoise while accepting that the first two premises are true, proceeds to reject the conclusion arising from it is a clear indication that it does not believe in the concept of logical consequence. Secondly, the tortoise’s insistence on Achille’s writing whatever premise they arrive at is most likely to demonstrated to Achille’s the futility of his attempts at convincing him using logical argument or reasons. The argument essentially served to remind all of the most important part of any argument. First, there is a huge need to establish the ground rules of argument. Without this, putting up a convincing argument, particularly using logical reasoning, can be very difficult. In essence, one comes to the realization that providing a clear connection between the premises offered and the conclusion arrived at is very important. as without proper explanation, proving proof for logical arguments and reaffirmation of the claims can only be done by appealing to the individuals belief in the process that is logical argument. This in particular, is the greatest problem faced by Achilles, as he has no tangible evidence he could use to substantiate claims within the conclusion. At the same time, being able to convince an individual through a logical argument, requires that one is conversant with the deductive logical approach, which can same plenty of time.

Reference

Carroll, L. (1895) What the Tortoise said toAchilles.

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