Subject: Business    / Management    

Question

Production & Operations Management – MGT613

Table below shows its annual sales, demand and production demand over the period 1998 to 2005 (For both canvas and parachute material tents).

    

TABLE , ANNUAL VALUES OF SALES, DEMAND AND PRODUCTION FOR PAKORG

YEAR
    

1998
    

1999
    

2000
    

2001
    

2002
    

2003
    

2004
    

2005

SALES
    

214,200
    

202,100
    

192,500
    

189,000
    

198,300
    

213,400
    

241,400
    

231,100

DEMAND
    

150,000
    

155,000
    

125,000
    

200,000
    

225,000
    

245,000
    

175,000
    

185,000

PRODUCTION
    

155,000
    

155,000
    

185,000
    

185,000
    

185,000
    

185,000
    

185,000
    

185,000

    Identify the sales trend over the period shown
    Do the demand figures show cyclical fluctuations?
    What happens on the sales trend if there is a prolong summer or a tragic incident like an earthquake or a flood.
    Compute a three year and five year moving average demand forecast for both types of tents for the last five years (2001 to 2005).
    The management provides a smoothing constant value of 0.1 and 0.6 and asks to record the differences between actual and forecaster demand values. The spread is narrow and wider for which smoothing constant?