Business Modeling
Business Modeling: Final estimated model that should be used for prediction. Fit of the estimated model ( explanatory power, significance, regression model assumptions ).
Using excel Add ins - regression
Calls Received Ads Place Previous Week Calls Received the Previous Week Airline Bookings
Calls Received 1.000000
Ads Place Previous Week 0.58435892 1.000000
Calls Received the Previous Week 0.654482969 0.709017466 1.00000
Airline Bookings 0.533973192 0.360694798 0.219988054 1.00000
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.768833636
R Square 0.591105161
Adjusted R Square 0.437769596
Standard Error 86.185825
Observations 12
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 85904.27855 28634.75952 3.854977555 0.056364409
Residual 8 59423.97145 7427.996431
Total 11 145328.25
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -269.8384166 216.5685514 -1.245972302 0.248024888 -769.2463912 229.5695581 -769.2463912 229.5695581
X Variable 1 4.952788772 20.69902397 0.23927644 0.81690744 -42.77924605 52.68482359 -42.77924605 52.68482359
X Variable 2 0.834047965 0.523880632 1.592057261 0.150036794 -0.374022939 2.042118868 -0.374022939 2.042118868
X Variable 3 0.088664991 0.054832052 1.617028492 0.144533989 -0.037777948 0.21510793 -0.037777948 0.21510793
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.766928186
R Square 0.588178843
Adjusted R Square 0.49666303
Standard Error 81.54701992
Observations 12
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 85479.00188 42739.50094 6.427073364 0.018458183
Residual 9 59849.24812 6649.916458
Total 11 145328.25
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -248.0359548 185.8927667 -1.334295891 0.214881125 -668.5546076 172.4826981 -668.5546076 172.4826981
X Variable 1 0.920800393 0.357800027 2.573505655 0.030014685 0.111400501 1.730200286 0.111400501 1.730200286
X Variable 2 0.092569427 0.049530224 1.868948266 0.094456853 -0.019475725 0.204614579 -0.019475725 0.204614579
Residual
Mean 0
Standard Error 21.29327112
Median -13.46176276
Standard Deviation 73.76205487
Sample Variance 5440.840738
Kurtosis -0.580177709
Skewness 0.371627727
Range 233.2924249
Minimum -113.5015713
Maximum 119.7908536
Count 12
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.766928186
R Square 0.588178843
Adjusted R Square 0.49666303
Standard Error 81.54701992
Observations 12
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 85479.00188 42739.50094 6.427073364 0.018458183
Residual 9 59849.24812 6649.916458
Total 11 145328.25
Coefficients Sample Average Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -248.0359548 185.8927667 -1.334295891 0.214881125 -668.5546085 172.4826989 -668.5546085 172.4826989
Calls Received the Previous Week 0.920800393 402.25 0.357800027 2.573505655 0.030014685 0.111400499 1.730200287 0.111400499 1.730200287
Airline Bookings 0.092569427 3107 0.049530224 1.868948266 0.094456854 -0.019475725 0.204614579 -0.019475725 0.204614579
Forecast 409.97