2. Appendix problem 1: Delete “Eliminating the data for 2000.” You need to calculate the moving average forecasts and RMSEs for year 2000, not the whole data period. Salvaator's chapter 6 appendix problem 3 (p.257) Time CPI forecast(w=0.3) (A-F)^2 forecastt(w=0.7) (A-F)^2 Jan-98 161.0 166.63 166.63 Feb-98 161.1 164.94 Mar-98 161.4 163.79 Apr-98 161.8 163.07 May-98 162.3 162.69 Jun-98 162.2 162.57 Jul-98 162.1 162.46 Aug-98 162.6 162.35 Sep-98 162.6 162.43 Oct-98 163.2 162.48 Nov-98 163.4 162.70 Dec-98 163.5 162.91 Jan-99 164.2 163.08 Feb-99 164.6 163.42 Mar-99 165.0 163.77 Apr-99 166.6 164.14 May-99 166.2 164.88 Jun-99 165.4 165.28 Jul-99 165.8 165.31 Aug-99 166.3 165.46 Sep-99 167.2 165.71 Oct-99 167.2 166.16 Nov-99 167.1 166.47 Dec-99 167.3 166.66 Jan-00 167.9 166.85 1.10 Feb-00 169.3 167.17 4.55 Mar-00 170.7 167.81 8.37 Apr-00 170.6 168.67 3.71 May-00 171.1 169.25 3.41 Jun-00 171.0 169.81 1.42 Jul-00 171.7 170.16 2.36 Aug-00 172.2 170.63 2.48 Sep-00 173.3 171.10 4.85 Oct-00 173.8 171.76 4.17 Nov-00 173.5 172.37 1.28 Dec-00 173.5 172.71 0.62 MSE 3.19 RMSE 1.79
