Appendix problem 1
2. Appendix problem 1: Delete “Eliminating the data for 2000.” You need to calculate the moving average forecasts and RMSEs for year 2000, not the whole data period.
Salvaator's chapter 6 appendix problem 3 (p.257)
Time CPI forecast(w=0.3) (A-F)^2 forecastt(w=0.7) (A-F)^2
Jan-98 161.0 166.63 166.63
Feb-98 161.1 164.94
Mar-98 161.4 163.79
Apr-98 161.8 163.07
May-98 162.3 162.69
Jun-98 162.2 162.57
Jul-98 162.1 162.46
Aug-98 162.6 162.35
Sep-98 162.6 162.43
Oct-98 163.2 162.48
Nov-98 163.4 162.70
Dec-98 163.5 162.91
Jan-99 164.2 163.08
Feb-99 164.6 163.42
Mar-99 165.0 163.77
Apr-99 166.6 164.14
May-99 166.2 164.88
Jun-99 165.4 165.28
Jul-99 165.8 165.31
Aug-99 166.3 165.46
Sep-99 167.2 165.71
Oct-99 167.2 166.16
Nov-99 167.1 166.47
Dec-99 167.3 166.66
Jan-00 167.9 166.85 1.10
Feb-00 169.3 167.17 4.55
Mar-00 170.7 167.81 8.37
Apr-00 170.6 168.67 3.71
May-00 171.1 169.25 3.41
Jun-00 171.0 169.81 1.42
Jul-00 171.7 170.16 2.36
Aug-00 172.2 170.63 2.48
Sep-00 173.3 171.10 4.85
Oct-00 173.8 171.76 4.17
Nov-00 173.5 172.37 1.28
Dec-00 173.5 172.71 0.62
MSE 3.19
RMSE 1.79